Zimbabwe failure haunts Don McKinnon

By HELEN TUNNAH

For a man campaigning to stay Commonwealth Secretary-General, Don McKinnon is spreading a pretty downbeat message about his biggest headache, Zimbabwe.

"What we have achieved so far is probably nothing," McKinnon admits. "I have failed totally to achieve anything, but no other organisation has achieved anything either in creating a mood for change.

"But show me what the pressure point is on Zimbabwe and I'll do it."

McKinnon hopes to be appointed to a second term as Secretary-General at the Commonwealth leaders summit in Abuja, Nigeria, next week. Zimbabwe's President Robert Mugabe won't be there, excluded because of his country's suspension from the 54-nation body after he kept his hold on power in last year's rigged presidential elections.

Dissatisfaction over McKinnon's stand against Mugabe is thought to be behind the announcement yesterday that Sri Lankan candidate, former foreign minister Lakshman Kadirgamar, will be seeking to replace the New Zealander.

Mugabe continues to threaten to turn up at Abuja, but if he did his presence could damage the body irreparably. Prime Minister Helen Clark, and her British and Australian counterparts Tony Blair and John Howard, have said if Mugabe attends, in any capacity, they will walk away from the summit.

Foreign ministers from South Africa, Lesotho and Mozambique are expected to meet in Pretoria this weekend to discuss Mugabe's exclusion, but McKinnon yesterday appeared confident he would not lose his position.

Sections of the Commonwealth have warned of the perils of a Mugabe-endorsed alternative and McKinnon said he did not detect a situation that would divide the 54-member Commonwealth.

"The support I have from the Pacific, from the Caribbean, from most of Asia and a number of African leaders who have rung me in the past few weeks suggests to me it is not a split. I spoke to a lot of leaders six or eight months ago, and said to them, 'if you think it's time for a new Secretary-General, I'll go home'," McKinnon says. So far, he isn't packing.

Now 64, he will be 69 by the time his spell at the head of the Commonwealth Secretariat ends if it is extended for four years, from next April.

He got the job after promoting himself as a champion of the Pacific region and developing states and after his role in helping to broker the Bougainville peace accord. That earned him a Nobel peace prize nomination, but political rivals say he is too reluctant to speak out against dominant nations on humanitarian issues, citing East Timor's occupation by Indonesia.

Asked this week about the human rights record of Commonwealth host Nigeria, McKinnon avoided overt criticism. He said Nigeria - a nation where violent crime and corruption are rife, and where this year's elections were notable for the hundreds killed - faced an "enormous challenge" in managing deep-rooted ethnic rivalries and religious tensions between Christians and Muslims.

"The African leader can have more problems in the first hour of the day than other leaders face in an entire term. Sometimes these human rights issues aren't as important to these leaders as putting food on the table and providing education."

As Secretary-General he has restructured the Commonwealth's administration arm into a more modern organisation and rates as one of his best achievements securing special envoys to troubled spots, such as post-coup Fiji.

His Mugabe failures aside, it may be his strident protests against European and United States trade subsidies which bolster his muted impact during his first term as Secretary-General.

Following the collapse of world trade talks in Mexico in September, amid a standoff between developed and developing nations, McKinnon has ignited the debate at the Commonwealth level.

Reflecting the language of key African nations, South Africa and Nigeria, he has savaged the billions of dollars the US, Europe and Japan pour into propping up their farmers, while driving down world prices for key African exports such as cotton.

"If you want to keep Africa in poverty, then keep following those policies," he told the Weekend Herald.

His report to the Commonwealth summit is equally blunt. "The single biggest measure developed nations could take to tackle world poverty would be to end trade distorting subsidies. Sadly, talk is long and cheap on this topic; delivery is short and progress painfully slow."

He expects Commonwealth leaders will agree to a strong statement on fair trade in their communique, but accepts it may have limited impact.

"They may not act, but they will be left in no doubt about what is wanted."

The same could be said of the Commonwealth over Zimbabwe next week. McKinnon has not spoken to Mugabe for 18 months, since the southern Africa state was suspended.

Mugabe has moved on from keeping McKinnon waiting for lengthy spells at Harare hotels and airport, to refusing to meet him at all. And, defiant of international criticism, Mugabe has fast-tracked the seizure of farms owned by white landowners.

A country once able to feed its own people is now reliant on food aid, with half its 14 million people suffering from a famine crippling the nation. A Commonwealth report, commissioned by McKinnon after Zimbabwe's suspension, blamed the land seizures for the rising hunger.

The Guardian newspaper said McKinnon believed there was "conclusive evidence" Mugabe's government had politicised food aid. People suspected of sympathising with the main opposition, the Movement for Democratic Change, are left to starve.

Limited economic sanctions have been imposed against the regime by the European Union, the US and Britain - aid agencies suggest sanctions may have worsened the famine - but not by the Commonwealth.

Individual states have introduced political sanctions, including New Zealand, which has a travel ban against Mugabe and about 80 officials or government members.

Prime Minister Clark and McKinnon say a Zimbabwe solution at Abuja will have to be agreed by the 52 invited leaders after a special committee comprising Australia, South Africa and Nigeria failed to persuade Mugabe to abide by the principles of good governance.

Mugabe reduced the effectiveness of the group by characterising John Howard as a racist while reminding South Africa and Nigeria of the ties of African unity, but the strength of such a rallying cry may be weakening as a new generation of Africans emerge who were born after independence into the constraints of poverty.

Mugabe's African neighbours are growing increasingly nervous about having a failing state on their doorstep - three million Zimbabwean refugees are in South Africa already - and the key to any progress on Zimbabwe lies with South Africa's President Thabo Mbeki.

At the Abuja summit, Mbeki and Nigeria's President Olusegun Obasanjo will be reminded they have a responsibility to Africa to lead calls for change in Zimbabwe.

Clark is not detailing any message she will take to private talks or the practical solutions New Zealand thinks can be found to the Zimbabwe crisis. She is firm in wanting Zimbabwe expelled from the Commonwealth, while knowing that will not happen, and describes the plight of the starving millions as "horrific, horrific".

"We have said they should be thrown out, absolutely. They should have been expelled quite some time ago, but suspension at least has the advantage of they don't turn up."

Oxfam New Zealand's executive director Barry Coates says continuing pressure from the Commonwealth is important, but it needs to be stepped up. "Countries like South Africa are just not playing a strong enough role. This is a humanitarian crisis."

Mbeki has shown little inclination to take a stand, retaining instead an allegiance to a loyal opponent of South Africa's apartheid regime.

Diplomacy before the summit is carefully avoiding any criticism of African leaders and their failure to isolate Mugabe - last week he signed a number of human rights accords with the African Union - to avoid any perception of a race-linked split within the organisation.

And there is also acute awareness of the symbolism if Obasanjo, as a black leader and the host, delivers any criticism of Zimbabwe, supposing Commonwealth leaders can actually agree to a statement.

If anything is achieved at Abuja, it may be because Mbeki and Obasanjo are driven not by Commonwealth sensitivities, but the political and economic realisms of the New Partnership for African Development, known as Nepad.

The major financiers of African aid, predominantly from Europe and the US, have made it clear there will be no handover of funds under Nepad unless African states sort out their governance, and that means resolving the Zimbabwe mess.

Obasanjo and Mbeki reportedly argued against extending Zimbabwe's suspension from the Commonwealth, but Nepad specifically requires members to deal with errant African Union states through "peer review" procedures. Zimbabwe will be the first test of those mechanisms.