KEY POINTS:
Despite eight years of catastrophe-strewn Bush rule, Americans are perfectly capable of returning another Republican to the White House, and that Republican could easily be the former mayor of New York Rudy Giuliani.
America's political classes and punditocracy are increasingly convinced Hillary Clinton is inexorably bound for the Oval Office. It is a view that is widespread abroad, especially in war-sceptical and Bush-weary Europe.
The thesis is simple: after eight years of Bush and the quagmire of Iraq, America cannot conceivably vote Republican again. Therefore the seemingly one-woman show of the Democratic race will propel Clinton to victory.
It is a powerful argument. The Democrats are raising much more campaign cash than the Republicans. Clinton is streets ahead of her Democratic rivals in the opinion polls and beats her potential Republican opponents too, often in red states where few thought she would have a chance.
But it is too simple a theory. Leaving aside whether Clinton will win the Democratic nomination, the fact is that America is perfectly capable of voting Republican again.
Far from looking ahead to a Clinton White House, be prepared for a Rudy Giuliani one.
After all, the Democrats have been here before. Repeatedly. In 2000, conventional wisdom had it that Al Gore would easily crush a certain Texas cowboy famous for little more than being his daddy's son. In 2004, how could John Kerry, a heroic Vietnam veteran, lose to that same cowboy who had just embroiled the country in a needless foreign war? Conventional wisdom was deeply wrong both times.
Republicans have consistently shown themselves better at winning elections, even when everything points in a Democrat direction. Republicans are superb at exploiting conservative issues that resonate deeply with the American public. Democrats often flounder getting their message across.
In the past 60 years, Democrats have won more than 50 per cent of the total popular vote in a presidential election only twice.
Let me repeat that. Twice in 60 years.
Even Bill Clinton - now regarded by many Democrats as the incarnation of a lost golden age - needed the third-party candidacy of eccentric billionaire Ross Perot to assure him of his two victories.
In American elections the Republicans always have a good chance. It is unlikely that 2008 will be any different.
Clinton has been undeniably superb at changing America's mind about her candidacy. Unfairly vilified throughout the 90s, she has waged a flawless war against enormous odds to get this far. But the fact remains: she is a figure many Americans still dislike.
With the Republican party split into a multitude of bickering factions, only two words seem to unite them: stop Hillary.
The crucial name is the one not on the ballot: George W. Bush.
Though no Republican candidate has decisively broken with Bush so far, it will be a powerful card to play once nominated.
Giuliani, and his liberal social beliefs, could easily appeal to independent anti-Bush voters.
Finally, there is the war. Like 2004, 2008 will not be an anti-war election. It will still be an election about 9/11.
The US media (and Bush) largely fold Iraq into the "war on terror": a phrase that has lost its power abroad but still has huge currency at home. That can only help Giuliani, whose intimate association with that grim day is potentially a winner.
Clinton's performance in the polls - even in red states, even against Giuliani - has her ahead now. But the only thing certain at the moment is that the race remains firmly open.
Anything could still happen - and it probably will.
PORTRAIT OF A LEADER
Born: In Brooklyn, New York, on May 28, 1944, Rudolph William Louis Giuliani.
Grew up: In a working-class Italian family. His father, Harold, and his mother, Helen, were children of immigrants.
Studied: At New York University School of Law.
Best of times: On September 11, 2001, his appearance of calm leadership elevated him from mayor of New York to America's mayor.
Worst of times: His painful divorce from his second wife in 2002 became a New York tabloid saga.
He says: "I certainly haven't lived a perfect life. I am not running as the perfect candidate for President of the United States. I am running as a leader."
Others say: "He is nuts, actually mad" - Michael Wolff in Vanity Fair. "In our perilous times, he is the unique combination of vision, guts and perseverance that we need in the Oval Office" - Andrew McCarthy, senior fellow at the Foundation for Defence of Democracies.
-Observer
