'Yes we can' gives way to realities of power politics

When the Nobel peace prize committee awarded President Barack Obama the ultimate accolade, its members can never have imagined that his acceptance speech would set out an eloquent defence of war.

His speech in Oslo could have been delivered by George W. Bush, when Obama spoke of "evil" in the world and of reserving "the right to act unilaterally".

In America it has caused people to take a fresh look at the President who was elected as a result of his soaring rhetoric and promise of transformational change.

The contours of the Obama doctrine are taking shape.

In many ways it has been defined by President Bush, with Obama deliberately staking out an opposite approach.

Where Bush would shoot first and ask questions later, Obama asks questions and shoots later. For as he made it clear in Oslo, this President is no pacifist.

President Obama's transformational agenda inevitably raised expectations, not only in America but around the world. But at the end of this first, crucial, year for his agenda, tangible successes are proving elusive.

He offered an outstretched hand to Iran and North Korea, instead of the fist of his predecessor, Bush. But now the talk is of "crippling sanctions" as the Iranian authorities continue to ratchet up their nuclear defiance.

Iran will clearly be an early test of the "Obama doctrine" and its recourse to military power.

Another vital clue will be provided early next year by the Administration's Nuclear Posture Review, which will show whether his vision of a world without nuclear weapons will be the backdrop to future policy.

As his approval ratings sink, his "dithering" may prove either his strength or his undoing in the longer term.

In the course of the past year, he has disappointed key constituencies as decisions have been delayed.

He dismayed the allies as he took months to decide on the Afghanistan "surge".

He disappointed human rights advocates by not standing up to China and for hesitating too long before expressing support for the demonstrators in Iran.

Gay rights campaigners point out he has not yet fulfilled his campaign promise to welcome gay men and women into the military.

His pledge to close Guantanamo by the end of the year is proving complicated to implement.

Nuclear disarmament activists worry that the slow progress in negotiations on reducing Russian and US strategic nuclear weapons is delaying the ratification of other key arms control treaties.

He was criticised for staying aloof from discussion of the health care bill for too long, allowing the "tea party" radical opponents oxygen.

The policy delays came as no surprise to Stephen Wayne, a professor of government at Georgetown University. "He thinks like a lawyer. He has a logical, non-ideological mindset. Coming together on the policy is as important as the policy itself."

When discussing Obama, people have taken to calling him a "realist", in contrast to the days on the campaign trail when his uplifting "Yes you can" message was described as idealist.

In the New York Times this week, David Brooks said he was a "Christian realist". Obama himself, in his Oslo speech, said he faced "the world as it is".

He will still lambast the "fat cats" of Wall St, but knows that his leverage is limited. "He realises you can't transform policy and is constantly trying to find common ground," says Wayne.

Much of the criticism laid at Obama's White House door seems unfair, however. He inherited the worst recession in living memory and two wars, in Iraq and Afghanistan. He has not been helped by some of his appointments, revived from the Bill Clinton era, who lack policy ambition.

There are pluses: On the international front, diplomats all point to a positive change in "the atmospherics". He got to grips with climate change early on, and he should be applauded for tackling health care.

If there was one major domestic issue he had to tackle in his first year, it had to be health care, and the plan to give an additional 30 million Americans health insurance.

But that very debate quickly poisoned the political climate and may have jeopardised progress on other issues dear to the President's heart, including his nuclear disarmament agenda.

Obama's approval rating in the polls now stands at 47 per cent.

It is the worst poll rating for any American President since Truman at this stage in the presidency.

So where does the President go from here? A deal on health care is still within his grasp. So is the arms control treaty with the Russians. But it will take more than that to save his "transformational" presidency.