Winners and losers from the New Hampshire primary

Washington Post

10 Feb, 2016 06:41 PM6 mins to read

Democratic presidential candidate, Sen. Bernie Sanders. Photo / AP

Winners

1. Donald Trump: The real estate billionaire reasserted his grip on the Republican race with a convincing New Hampshire victory. He demonstrated real resilience in the face of a setback eight days ago in Iowa. Trump now has a second place in Iowa and a first place in New Hampshire -- something very few people thought could happen even a few months ago. Trump will head into South Carolina in 10 days time with real momentum. He proved yesterday he can win.

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump. Photo / AP

2. Bernie Sanders: Despite the best spin of Hillary Clinton's campaign, Sanders' win wasn't simply about the fact that he represents a neighbouring state. This is a convincing win for Sanders that shows, for the second time in eight days, his appeal with young voters and the energy behind him. In Nevada, he will benefit from the positive coverage from his New Hampshire win. Does what happened yesterday in New Hampshire make him more able to appeal to black and Hispanic voters? If not, he (still) can't win.

3. John Kasich: The Ohio Governor put everything on the line in New Hampshire. The gamble worked as he managed to carve out a second place showing, ensuring that he will stay in the race to South Carolina and battle for the mantle of establishment choice within the party. Kasich's strength in New Hampshire could well be his undoing as the race moves south and westward; his crossover appeal as a non-partisan problem solver will play far less well in, say, South Carolina. But at this point, he's got to be happy that he even has a tomorrow to worry about in this race.

4. Michael Bloomberg: The former New York Mayor stoked the fires of a possible third party bid by disparaging the "banal" nature of the current conversation in both parties. The wins in New Hampshire by Trump and Sanders open up the possibility that one or both men could wind up as their parties' nominees, a dream scenario for those - most notably Bloomberg himself - who dream of a real chance for an independent bid.

Losers

1. Hillary Clinton: Yes, she lost as we expected. But the margin Clinton lost by is eye-opening. By way of historical comparison, Clinton beat Barack Obama in New Hampshire by three points in 2008. John Kerry beat Howard Dean by 12 points in 2004. Al Gore beat Bill Bradley by four points in 2000. Sanders' margin over Clinton is certain to be wider than any of those. Her problems among young voters is real and troubling for a party whose current president built his electoral coalition on his strengths among voters aged 18-29. In her concession speech, Clinton did everything she could to insist there was no space between she and Sanders on issues like income inequality and campaign finance reform. It remains to be seen whether she will be more effective at selling that idea than she has been in Iowa and New Hampshire. Clinton's greatest strength as a politician is and has always been her resilience and perseverance. That strength will be severely tested in the coming days as there will be calls for her to make staff changes and for a major overhauling of her message. Will she bend to the pressure? Should she?

Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton. Photo / AP

2. Chris Christie: The New Jersey Governor peaked too soon. Six weeks ago, polls showed him cresting into double digits -- and into the top three -- in New Hampshire. Christie's biggest contribution to the race in New Hampshire may have been the body slam he delivered to Marco Rubio in last Sunday's debate in the state. Christie pledged that his campaign would continue on in South Carolina. It's hard to see that happening now.

3. Marco Rubio: After the Florida Senator's surprisingly strong third-place showing in Iowa, Rubio's people whispered about the possibility of him finishing second in New Hampshire. He didn't come close. That's a missed opportunity for Rubio to consolidate the establishment behind him going into South Carolina. He will now not only face a real fight for the establishment vote from Kasich (and maybe Bush) in South Carolina but will also have to weather questions about whether his robotic responses in the final days of the New Hampshire primary were a sign of bigger problems with his candidacy.

4. Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina: It's all over.

What mattered to voters?

Exit poll

Democrats

What are the most important issues?

• 33 per cent income inequality
• 32 per cent economy
• 25 per cent health care
• 8 per cent terrorism

Time of decision?

• 23 per cent last few days
• 7 per cent last week
• 15 per cent last month
• 55 per cent before that

Age of voter?

• 83/16 per cent Sanders under 30
• 58/41 per cent Clinton 65 or over

Republicans

What are the most important issues?

• 30 per cent economy
• 27 per cent government spending
• 25 per cent terrorism
• 15 per cent immigration

Support banning Muslims from entering the US?

• 66 per cent support
• 31 per cent oppose

Voting for the first time?

• 2016 12 per cent
• 2012 12 per cent

Time of decision?

• 46 per cent last few days
• 6 per cent last week
• 16 per cent last month
• 32 per cent before that

Delegates at stake

Democrats

Including superdelegates, Hillary Clinton received at least 15 and Bernie Sanders 13 with most of the vote counted. Clinton holds a big delegate lead, mainly due to endorsements from superdelegates -- party officials who can support the candidate of their choice. Before New Hampshire, Clinton had 385 delegates and Sanders 29. It takes 2382 delegates to win the Democratic nomination.

Republicans

23 delegates were up for grabs yesterday. Donald Trump had at least 10, John Kasich three, Ted Cruz and Jeb Bush two each. After the Iowa caucuses Cruz had eight, Trump and Marco Rubio had seven each. It takes 1237 delegates to win the Republican nomination.