William Hurst: Why the past 48 hours of protests in China stands out

OPINION:

Protests are nothing new in Chinese politics. The past 30 years have seen many thousands of incidents every year. There have even been numerous protests against specific Covid control measures and lockdowns over the past 12-18 months.

What makes the past 48 hours different, however, is the degree to which otherwise disparate strands of protest have woven together.

Before Saturday, none of the distinct strands posed a major challenge to the regime. Workers in Zhengzhou and elsewhere took to the streets to demand redress of labour and workplace grievances; students turned out on dozens of campuses across the country; urban residents protested in reaction to the state’s failed response to a tragic fire and various other debacles (including ambulances that arrived too late to save patients).

But starting on Saturday these threads combined under the broad “anti-lockdown” banner into some of the more stunning events in recent memory, as crowds appeared in multiple cities calling on Xi Jinping or even the CCP to step down.

Notably, the protesters in these crowds appeared to be young, white-collar professionals who had not been caught up in the earlier protests by students or labourers.

The unity of these middle-class, perhaps less politically inclined citizens with workers and students is surprising. But what is perhaps even more shocking is the lack of a more robust or harsh state response.

I would frankly have predicted much quicker and firmer repression of these protests than we have seen. The fact that the state has mostly held back indicates either that it does not feel strong or confident enough to do anything or (more likely in this case) that it is hoping the protests may peter out of their own accord.

This could happen if protesters simply grow too tired, if they come to believe the risks or opportunity costs outweigh any potential benefits, or if the unity of protesters begins to unravel.

This, I think, is the most likely scenario – that we’ll go back to distinct strands of labour, student, and urban governance protests.

Should this not happen, I suspect the state will move toward some type of either quick and decisive or slower-motion repression relatively soon.

Real concessions, or a relenting on the zero-Covid strategy remain extremely unlikely and probably off the table.