Why Ukraine has invaded Russia and what that could mean for the war - The Front Page

A Ukrainian soldier walks through the empty town of Sudzha in Kursk Oblast, Russia. Ukraine claims to have seized 1000 square kilometres of Russian territory since its incursion into the area began. Photo / Getty Images

Ukraine is continuing with its mission into Russia, which has marked the first invasion into the latter country since World War II.

It has been two weeks since Ukrainian forces launched an incursion in Kursk Oblast, which is on the border between the warring nations. Ukraine claims to have seized 1000 square kilometres of territory since the incursion began, and its President Volodymr Zelenskyy said the purpose of the mission is to create a buffer zone to protect border towns.

University of Waikato international law professor Alexander Gillespie told The Front Page that Ukraine wants Russians to feel the weight of the war, as the conflict has been largely contained within Ukrainian territory.

It could also be used as a leveraging point in future peace negotiations, but there’s no sign of those starting any time soon.

Gillespie said there are clear risks involved in this strategy.

“Once you start finding incursions going into other countries, especially into Russia, the chances of more retaliation are likely. Your bigger risk is not that it goes into Russia, but that it spreads into neighbouring Nato-aligned countries around Ukraine.”

Gillespie said because of that, other countries are nervous about what could unfold from here and how Russian President Vladimir Putin might respond, which would be contingent on how successful the incursion is.

“The Russians, when they’ve annexed those two areas in the eastern Ukraine, have made very clear that if these were recaptured in total by the Ukrainian forces as assisted by Nato, they would consider this justification for a nuclear strike.

“And so, right now, I expect that they’re waiting for the Ukrainians just to retreat back around their border, not actually try to entrench that territory, but to actually take Russian territory is a fundamental objective that will not be allowed by Russia. They won’t allow any of their territory to be occupied permanently.”

The long-term impacts of this incursion may not be felt until the US election in November, with Republican candidate Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris offering differing takes on Ukraine’s future.

“That’s where you will see the determination, because Trump’s made clear if he achieves the White House, he wants to have a peace deal cut very quickly. Whereas if Harris retains the White House, then you’re going to see a continuation of what’s already happening.”

Listen to the full episode for more on the potential implications of this incursion, and what may come next in the wider war.

The Front Page is a daily news podcast from the New Zealand Herald, available to listen to every weekday from 5am. The podcast is presented by Chelsea Daniels, an Auckland-based journalist with a background in world news and crime/justice reporting who joined NZME in 2016.

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