Why Kerry is the invisible candidate

You couldn't turn on the news last week in America without thinking that it was a good moment for a stiff drink. Part of that was Teddy Kennedy and the power of suggestion. Those gin-blossomed jowls have been shaking all over the screen the past few weeks, their owner bellowing that only John Kerry can rescue the country from ruin and disgrace.

Then there were the reports of terrorists' "chatter" and an all-points alert for seven swarthy villains from Central Casting, one of them a woman with a degree in neurochemistry and two others said to be trained pilots. The message: if al-Qaeda is preparing another assault, it will likely be soon.

That drink? Better make it a double.

Was it just such a bracing jolt that fired up Al Gore? Probably not, it was the spirit of another kind that last week inspired a spit-flecked tirade against the man who pipped him for the White House in 2000. Bush is the most crooked President since Nixon, Gore thundered to huge applause, accusing him of dragging America's good name through the mud.

As America rolls towards its November polls, it's becoming quite a show. There is only one thing missing: the headliner, John Kerry, who seems barely willing - or is it able? - to step into the spotlight.

Why such a low profile? A President burdened with so many negatives should be a sitting duck. Yet Kerry has left it to his support acts to make the running. Iraq's casualty list, an economy still getting its act together, falling presidential poll numbers, pain at the petrol pump and the prospect of higher interest rates - they should be red meat for any candidate with a hunger for power.

But Kerry isn't feasting. He's roaming the country and scoring ink, but not half as many headlines as his surrogates are earning. The big question is why the challenger isn't gaining more traction out of the bad news. One obvious answer is that he is a genuinely awful campaigner.

Take last week, for example. On the same day that Gore blew his top and led the nightly news broadcasts, Kerry was addressing a rally in Seattle. His presidency wasn't going to be about photo ops, he promised the crowd, which had been stripped of its umbrellas to avoid obstructing the cameras and spoiling what was nothing more than a photo op.

As for substance, there is precious little of it - and when it comes, it's likely to be bogus. Americans need to give up their gas-guzzling four-wheel-drives, Kerry said recently, assuring his questioner that he wouldn't own one. Turns out he has five. His defence: they belong to his family, not him personally.

And then there is Iraq. America's policies are wrong, says Kerry. So, you'll be bringing the troops home? Well maybe/maybe not, the answer goes, depending on which way the wind is blowing.

Even his own candidacy is something of a contradiction. Last week, Kerry's people put it about that their man might delay accepting the nomination until after the convention. Being the non-candidate candidate would allow him to exploit a loophole in US election-finance laws and pump another $70 million worth of matching grants into the war chest. By week's end, however, the idea had been scuttled, and Kerry was swearing that he had always intended to play by the rules.

In public, Kerry's handlers point to polls that show him as many as six points ahead. All he needs to do is bide his time and wait for Bush to lose, the strategy goes.

But is it that simple? The same polls show Kerry also is losing ground. In March, 59 per cent of voters thought him "honest and trustworthy". By last week, the number was 48 per cent and falling. This could be the election determined not by popularity, but according to which contender carries the fewer negatives.

Kerry's camp swears it isn't worried. November is an age away, so there is plenty of time to sell the electorate on their challenger's strengths.

Problem is, while Kerry has been content to let allies sling the mud, another character has been preparing to usurp centre stage. Late in June, Bill Clinton's biography will be rush-released. The buzz for Bill will be intense, and the comparison with Kerry anything but flattering.

Clinton could have released the book around Christmas, when it would have made an ideal gift. But he is sacrificing sales to get it out now, just when it will overshadow Kerry's official anointing.

Why? One theory has it that Clinton wants to "suck all the oxygen out of the room" and create a vacuum that draws his wife into the vice-presidential slot.

As for Bush, his machine also claims there is nothing but sunshine ahead. The economy is picking up, they note, and if Iraq's deaths and torture scandals have shaved only a few points off his ratings, then the present figures must represent his hard-core of support. In the 17 floating "battleground states" Republic pollsters say the trend away from the incumbent has been generally less intense than in places like New York and California, which Bush has never had a chance of taking anyway.

All Bush needs to do, they say, is reclaim three or four points, let Ralph Nader siphon off the hard-left vote, and he'll be able to rib his father about securing the second term the older Bush never managed. Of course his dad will have a ready rejoinder. "Fair enough, son, but I wasn't running against John Kerry."