The people who don't like him would believe the women, the people who do like him would believe him (or even if they couldn't bring themselves to do that, would at least decide it doesn't really matter), and we'd all put it in that corner of our minds occupied by things like Trump University: Appalling behaviour on his part that doesn't really affect how we'll think about tomorrow's news.
Here are the women currently aiming their lawyers at the president and where their cases stand:
Stormy Daniels
The adult film actor and director says - as she has for many years - that beginning in 2006, just after the birth of Trump's son Barron, she had a sporadic affair with Trump that lasted about a year. During the 2016 campaign, Trump's personal lawyer, Michael Cohen, arranged a payment of US$130,000 to her (whose money it actually was remains unclear). In exchange, she signed a non-disclosure agreement requiring her silence.
While Daniels has been somewhat coy in her recent public statements, she has been talking about the affair, and her lawyer just released the results of a polygraph test she took in 2011 at the request of In Touch magazine, to whom she had given an interview detailing the affair. Daniels has now filed suit against Trump to be released from the NDA, and is offering to return the US$130,000 so she can speak candidly.
Karen McDougal
The former Playboy model says she had an affair with Trump at around the same time as Daniels. In 2016 she entered into a US$150,000 agreement with the parent company of the National Enquirer, which has been supportive of Trump, in a tactic known as "catch and kill," in which they buy a story about a celebrity, but instead of publishing it, keep in under wraps. McDougal is now suing the company, American Media Inc., saying they were secretly working with Trump lawyer Michael Cohen and deceived her about the nature of the agreement she signed. She too seeks to be free to discuss her relationship with Trump.
Summer Zervos
Zervos was a contestant on The Apprentice, and later was in contact with Trump as she was looking for a job. She alleges that on multiple occasions he kissed her and groped her against her will. She has filed suit against Trump not for the sexual harassment but for defamation, because he called her a liar. Yesterday, a judge in New York state court denied the request of Trump's lawyers that Zervos' case be dismissed, allowing it to go forward.
These cases pose different kinds of legal and political issues.
With Daniels and McDougal, the alleged behaviour in question was consensual; not so with Zervos. The payment to Daniels may have violated campaign finance laws. Since Trump has in various ways denied all the claims, he may not want to do anything that would be seen as admitting that he lied.
Even so, there would seem to be ways Trump could make these cases go away with the least fuss possible. He could release Daniels and McDougal from their NDAs, and tell them, "Say whatever you want, I don't care."
There might be a brief bit of prurient interest in their stories, but it would quickly fade. He could reach a settlement with Zervos that gave her a payout without admitting any guilt on his part; the money wouldn't matter to him.
But instead, he's fighting them all. He even has his lawyers saying Stormy Daniels now owes him US$20 million for violating her NDA. Why is he fighting so hard? Here are some theories:
1) This is just how Trump does business. As he wrote in one of his books, "When someone crosses you, my advice is 'Get Even!' That is not typical advice, but it is real life advice. If you do not get even, you are just a schmuck!. . .If you're afraid to fight back people will think of you as a loser, a 'schmuck!' They will know they can get away with insulting you, disrespecting you, and taking advantage of you." When somebody goes after Trump, he will try to destroy them. That may be about his personal pride, but it's also a means of deterrence to others who might think of crossing him.
2) There are secrets he's worried about coming out. This is particularly true in Zervos' case, since she was on The Apprentice. Since the case is going forward, she can demand documents and information as part of the discovery process, and who knows what might be revealed. Particularly tantalising is the possibility that behind-the-scenes tapes of the show's production, which some involved with the show have said would show Trump making appalling racist and sexist remarks, might become public. But that would be more reason to settle quickly with Zervos. In the other cases, however, Trump could be concerned about embarrassing personal revelations - not just that he had affairs with a porn star and a Playboy model (which pretty much everyone accepts is true), but something more humiliating that might strike at Trump's carefully constructed image as a macho ladies' man, which he maintains with a kind of desperate insecurity.
3) There are other women he wants to keep from coming forward. When a dozen women accuse you of sexual misconduct, it's a good bet that there are more than a dozen out there somewhere. In fact, Steve Bannon told author Michael Wolff as he was writing Fire and Fury that Trump's lawyer Marc Kasowitz had silenced many more women. "Look, Kasowitz has known [Trump] for 25 years. Kasowitz has gotten him out of all kinds of jams," Bannon said. "Kasowitz on the campaign - what did we have, a hundred women? Kasowitz took care of all of them." Bannon (who has not disputed this quote) may have been exaggerating when he said "a hundred," but it suggests that there are more women out there whom Trump would like to keep quiet.
4) It's all about the NDAs. Not just the non-disclosure agreements that Trump has made women sign, but all of them. The Post's Ruth Marcus reported this week that Trump took the unprecedented step of making White House staff sign NDAs. But this is nothing new for him. Throughout his career Trump has been a prolific user of NDAs on people who worked for him. "I have reviewed confidentiality agreements in international, family-run hospitality organisations and . . . I have never seen a loyalty code to a family like this," said one expert who reviewed them. Untold numbers of people have signed NDAs with Trump over the years, and if women like Daniels and McDougal walk away from theirs, it could give those people ideas. We could learn all sorts of interesting things about Trump's personal and business history.
These are just theories; it's hard to know for sure what's going on here.
None of them could be what's really motivating Trump, or they might all be playing a role.
If there are particular secrets Trump is trying to keep under wraps, he might succeed. But the controversy over his treatment of women is certainly not going away.
