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Home / World

Why Donald Trump can't win the election: 'He can't come back from this'

By Debra Killalea of news.com.au and AP
news.com.au·
15 Oct, 2016 07:15 AM6 mins to read

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At a campaign rally in swing-state North Carolina, Donald Trump lashes out at accusations of sexual conduct against him saying he has "no idea who these women are."

It's become the election Donald Trump just can't win.

The beleaguered Republican nominee has faced scandal after scandal and the toughest week of the campaign so far.

His rival Hillary Clinton is also in the lead in the race to the White House.

The latest Real Clear Politics polling average puts the margin at six points across the country, and the latest polls show her ahead in a slew of must-win states for Trump.

But Clinton's poll lead isn't the only thing the Trump camp has to worry about.

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The fallout continues following last weekend's release of a damaging 2005 video which shows Trump making misogynistic remarks about women.

That was just the start as CNN anchor Anderson Cooper quizzed Trump about it during this week's second presidential debate.

Even before the scandal, Clinton was leading in the polls, now she's even further ahead.

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A Reuters/Ipsos poll of likely voters, released on Tuesday, also found 58 per cent of Republicans wanted Trump to stay as their nominee and 68 per cent said the Republican leadership should stand by him.

The poll, which was conducted after the second presidential debate on Sunday, showed Clinton's lead over Trump widening to 8 points from 5 points last week, before the release of the video.

DAMAGE CONTROL

Associate Professor in American Politics at the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney Brendon O'Connor said there was no way Trump could come back from any of this.

"This is different from everything else," he said.

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"This pattern of misogyny that Trump is now associated with will change voters' behaviour."

Ass Prof O'Connor said the New York Times investigation, in which two women claimed Trump touched them inappropriately, was well corroborated and was more than just the media playing an unfair game.

He also said the leaking of the 2005 tape was pivotal as it gave the women who made the claims the confidence that they might to be believed.

"The likelihood is stories like this will just keep coming," he said.

"Trump's claim that the women are lying will only result in more people coming forward. There is no reason for this story to die down.

"The tape made a huge difference, having something on tape is very different to just an accusation."

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Ass Prof O'Connor said Clinton's clear lead in the polls was "heading towards a landslide."

"At this stage it's looking like Clinton will get around 300 electoral votes," he said, with just 270 needed to claim victory.

More importantly the scandal has given the Clinton camp the biggest gift of the campaign by making it so easy for her to compete against a candidate who has completed so many own goals, he said.

Ass Prof O'Connor said the claims would no doubt be used against Trump during the third debate.

While Clinton was obviously "emotionally" disturbed after Trump called a snap news conference with three women who have accused Bill Clinton of sexually assaulting them just before the second debate, the Democrat leader wouldn't be so subdued this time around.

THE TAPE

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump waves to the audience after delivering an immigration policy speech. Photo / AP
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump waves to the audience after delivering an immigration policy speech. Photo / AP

The explosive video of Trump leaked last weekend plunged his campaign into turmoil and prompted dozens of Republican leaders to disendorse their own presidential nominee.

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In the tape, Trump described his attempts to sleep with a married woman and boasted how he could "do anything" to women because he was a celebrity.

"When you're a star, they let you do it. Grab them by the p****. You can do anything," he said.

Trump apologised for his words, dismissing them as "locker room banter".

SEXUAL MISCONDUCT

It's been headache after headache for Trump.

Up to 10 different women publicly accused Trump of sexual misconduct on Thursday including People writer Natasha Stoynoff who claimed Trump had "forced his tongue down her throat" and told her they were going to have an affair.

Rachel Crooks told the New York Times Trump kissed her "directly on the mouth" in a 2005 encounter while Jessica Leeds claimed he touched her inappropriately on a flight, saying "his hands were everywhere" during a flight three decades ago.

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Four former beauty queens, who were just teenagers at the time, also told Buzzfeed Trump would walk into their change rooms.

Trump has denied all the allegations and threatened legal action against The Times.

POSITIVE SIGNS FOR HILLARY

Early voting indicates Clinton is in the lead in two states which could clinch her victory.

So far 758,000 ballots have been cast with things looking favourable for Clinton in North Carolina and Florida.

While things are looking good for Trump in Ohio, the early votes don't yet reflect any voter response to the recording released last Friday of Trump making crude remarks about women.

Even if Trump can capture two states he's targeted - Pennsylvania and Ohio - he would need to pull off major upsets in multiple Democratic-leaning states to reach the 270 electoral votes in the state-by-state contest for the presidency.

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If Clinton picks up states Republicans won in 2012, Trump's task becomes harder, Associated Press reports.

STRATEGIC VIRGINIA

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally. Photo / AP
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally. Photo / AP

Trump's campaign is pulling out of Virginia in a move that has reportedly stunned staff in the battleground state.

Sources told NBC News Trump's campaign made the decision which left Republicans in the state "blindsided".

The move means Trump "is running a four state campaign" in Pennsylvania, Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio.

The move comes as Clinton's campaign believes Virginia is moving from a swing state to reliable Democratic territory.

This is despite Virginia not voting Democrat in more than 40 years before Obama's first of two victories, Associated Press reported.

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However a changing population makeup and Trump's struggles with suburban women means Clinton has become the forerunner here, especially given the state's increasing ethnic diversity.

The pull out is surprising given Virginia has been a regular stop for Trump - he has visited six times since the Republican convention and is spending about the same amount of money on television ads there as he is in Colorado.

Clinton hasn't visited Virginia since July. Her campaign stopped spending money on television advertisements the following month.

If Trump loses Virginia, he'll need to find another way to make up a batch of electoral votes that successful Republicans have banked on.

'I'VE WON EVERY POLL'

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump stands on stage with female supporters during a campaign rally. Photo / AP
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump stands on stage with female supporters during a campaign rally. Photo / AP

Despite the controversy, Trump claims he has won "every poll" on the second presidential debate.

Polling manager at The Washington Post cited four polls taken after the debate and found this was far from the case.

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CNN's immediate post-debate survey, a random sample of mobile and landline phones, found Clinton won, 57 per cent against Trump's 34 per cent.

A YouGov poll found Clinton led 47 per cent to Trump's 42 per cent.

- with AP

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