Who will succeed Arafat?

By JUSTIN HUGGLER in JERUSALEM

As Yasser Arafat's office rushed to deny reports that he had had a heart attack, the question on everyone's mind was obvious. Who will take over as Palestinian leader if Mr Arafat dies?

Unfortunately, the answer is anything but obvious.

The Palestinian Authority could dismiss reports that Mr Arafat suffered a small heart attack - many PA ministers seemed genuinely surprised at the reports - but what is far harder to dismiss is that, whatever the cause, Mr Arafat does not look in the best of health.

At his most recent appearances he has been visibly thinner than usual, frail-looking and unable to stand up for any length of time. But if he should die the succession is far from clear.

Under the Palestinian constitution, the new Palestinian Prime Minister, Ahmad Qureia, would take over as caretaker for two months - not because he is premier but because he is also speaker of the Palestinian parliament. But Mr Qureia does not have enough popular support to be considered a long-term replacement.

One man was until recently widely expected to succeed Mr Arafat, and does have the popular support to propel him into the job: Marwan Barghouti. But Mr Barghouti is currently in an Israeli prison, facing trial by an Israeli court he does not recognise on charges of being behind suicide bombings and other militant attacks. If Mr Barghouti remains behind bars the choices are scant.

Under the Palestinian constitution, in the event of Mr Arafat's death a new president can either be chosen in an election or, if that is impossible, named by the PLO executive committee. An election is near to impossible with Israeli tanks still in West Bank cities and the Palestinian population hemmed in by roadblocks.

Mr Arafat's death would create a vacuum not just in the post of Palestinian president, but as head of the PLO and of the Fatah faction. Any successor would need specific support in both the PLO and Fatah, as well as on the Palestinian street.

The candidates most favoured by Israel and the US have little chance. The former security minister, Mohammed Dahlan, is deeply unpopular and viewed by most Palestinians as an Israeli and American stooge. Jibril Rajoub, a former security chief, is even less popular. The former Prime Minister, Abu Mazen, who resigned after losing a power struggle with Mr Arafat, is discredited and disliked.

Farouk Qadumi has some support in the PLO, but he is living abroad, in Tunisia, and it is unlikely the Israelis would let him move in. Abd al-Sattar Qassam has set himself up as an independent candidate, but even if he could get the support, he is too radical to be acceptable to Israel.

With the lack of alternative candidates, there is increasing speculation that Israel wants to make a deal with Mr Barghouti, the one man who probably could get the job, that would give him his freedom in exchange for his cooperation if he ended up as Palestinian leader.

The speculation has been fuelled by the fact that the Israeli court allowed him to make a lengthy speech at his last appearance, but at the moment it is no more than speculation, and it is not clear whether Mr Barghouti would agree to such a deal, even if it was offered.

In the meantime, it is unwise to write off Mr Arafat, who has made more comebacks in his long career than anyone would have thought possible.

The reports he had had a heart attack came as such a surprise to one PA minister that he asked: "When did he have it? Today?" PA ministers insist it would have been impossible to hide a heart attack in the compound Mr Arafat is confined to by the Israeli military.

"Why wasn't he taken to hospital?" asked one minister.

But something appears to be wrong. When Mr Arafat disappeared from public view for a week, his office insisted it was nothing more than a bad case of flu. Now his evident weight loss is being explained away with a stomach infection, vomiting and severe diarrhoea.

- INDEPENDENT