West's pollution threatens millions in Africa and India

Over 70 million Africans and an even greater number of farmers in the Indian sub-continent will suffer catastrophic floods, disease and famine if the rich countries of the world fail to change their habits and radically cut their carbon emissions, a UK Government report says.

The stark warning, contained in a private government document commissioned by Gordon Brown, the British Finance Minister, comes days ahead of an announcement that will show Tony Blair backing away from his promise to "lead internationally" on climate change.

The government has decided to delay setting targets for industry to cut carbon emissions until other EU governments set theirs.

Previously, Mr Blair, the British Prime Minister, has made a virtue out of leading the way in Europe.

The bleak facts on how climate change threatens the Third World were laid out in a briefing paper drawn up this month by the Department for International Development.

It pointed out that a quarter of Africa's population lives within 100 kilometres of the sea coast.

As the sea level rises, when global warming melts he ice pack, the number of Africans at risk from coastal flooding will increase from one million in 1990 to 70 million in 2080.

In India, rising temperatures could drive down farm incomes by as much as a quarter, while the cost to Bangladesh of changes in the climate could be more than half the £58 billion that country has received in foreign aid.

"It's the poorest people in the world who suffer from climate change, but they are the least responsible for it," John Magragh, of Oxfam, said yesterday.

The report emphasises that - despite the recent focus of attention on New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina - 94 per cent of all natural disasters, and 97 per cent of deaths from natural disasters, occur in the developing countries.

They will be hit hardest as the number of natural disasters increases through climate change.

All the work that aid agencies do around the world to end hunger, improve education, combat disease, and close the gender gap will be jeopardised, the report warned.

In Bihar, India, for example, flooding can shut schools across the state for three months of the year.

Flooding caused by Hurricane Mitch brought a six-fold increase in cholera in Nicaragua.

Mozambique's annual economic growth dropped from 8 per cent to 2 per cent in a single year in the wake of a cyclone.

The briefing paper was drawn up for a review ordered by Mr Brown into the economic impact of climate change.

It was made public after a request by the BBC made under the Freedom of Information Act.

The review team, headed by Sir Nicholas Stern, will report in the autumn.

Sir Nicholas has already warned that climate change could push millions back into poverty, or force them to migrate.

Four years ago, the UK's carbon emissions, which had been falling since 1990, started to rise again because of changes in fuel prices and increasing road traffic.

They are now three per cent higher than when Labour came to power in 1997.

This week, Mr Brown announced that he is going to increase the climate change levy, which penalises businesses that produce high levels of carbon emissions, but it is thought unlikely that next week's programme will include any other increases in 'green' taxes.

- INDEPENDENT