Web election-watchers say exit polls tilt to Kerry

1.00pm

SAN FRANCISCO - Political websites, previously the domain of campaign junkies, grabbed centre stage after online commentators posted what they said was early exit poll data showing Senator John Kerry ahead.

Television networks were left to show footage of crowded poll sites and the candidates after vowing to refrain from making early projections of the presidential election's outcome.

US stocks closed lower in a sharp reversal after word spread -- first on pro-Kerry sites, then among stalwarts for President George W Bush -- of preliminary exit poll data purporting to show Kerry leading in the vital states of Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania.

Election watchers pointed to a pro-Kerry site known as My Due Diligence (http://www.mydd.com), which just ahead of 2pm EST (8am NZT) presented data showing Kerry leading in big swing states. Some called into question the results, which showed Kerry with a 60-40 lead over Bush in Pennsylvania.

The Dow Jones industrial average dropped 18.66 points, after being up as much as 100 points. "It is the unofficial word of Democratic wins on the internet blogs that are dragging the market lower suddenly," a New York trader said.

Word of the Kerry lead spread among other liberal-minded sites, including Daily Kos (http://www.dailykos.com/) and Wonkette.com (http://www.wonkette.com/), which cited "a little birdie" as the source of its exit poll data. Wonkette urged readers to take the figures with "huge tablespoons of salt."

Observers expressed caution about the results, noting that mydd.com attributed the numbers to the now defunct Voter News Service (VNS), whose faulty data was widely blamed for bungled election coverage in 2000.

"I simply don't buy these numbers," wrote Jonah Goldberg on the website of conservative commentary magazine National Review. "That doesn't mean that Bush may not be losing right now or that the Kerry people are unwarranted in their alleged happiness."

Several sites later amended their sourcing, saying that the exit polling data was in fact drawn from the National Election Pool (NEP).

Television networks ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox, and NBC, as well as the Associated Press created the NEP to provide exit poll surveys for the 2004 election.

"Exit polls don't matter," Shannen Coffin wrote in frustration on the National Review Online site. "There is no cause for panic and no reason to stay home today."

Early publication of exit polls have been blamed for driving away potential late-day voters in prior national elections.

US networks' credibility was badly tarnished in 2000 when they first called the presidential race in favour of Democrat Al Gore, then retracted that projection and proclaimed Bush the winner. The networks later backtracked and labelled the outcome in Florida a disputed result.

The final outcome was only clear more than a month later.

- REUTERS