War with Iraq: the Arab states' positions

By ANNE PENKETH

Arab states agree there is one country in the region that poses a risk to regional stability through its possession of weapons of mass destruction -- but they are thinking of Israel not Iraq.

The Arab leaders keep telling United States president George Bush that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict must be resolved before the US should return to its decade-old fight with Saddam Hussein which could destabilise the entire region.

So far, President Saddam has skillfully played the Arab masses through his support of the Palestinian intifada, and stoked up anti-American feeling.

The region's leaders, who all had cosy relations with the US until the Sept 11 attacks, are worried. Major US allies such as Saudi Arabia, which offered its bases to the US-led coalition in the Gulf War, are showing no such willingness this time.

The Egyptian president, Hosni Mubarak, stressed on Wednesday that not a single Arab state wants war. Speaking the day after the US Defence Secretary, Donald Rumsfeld argued in favour of a swift, pre-emptive strike against Iraq, the Egyptian leader said that an attack would cause chaos throughout the Middle East.

Jordan, which sat on the fence throughout the Gulf War because of its large Palestinian population, has denied that its territory would be used as a launch-pad against Iraq. The Jordanian monarch, King Abdullah, was the first to say last month, after a conversation with Tony Blair, that "In the light of the failure to move the Israeli-Palestinian process forward, military action against Iraq would really open Pandora's box."

Saudi Arabia, which in the eyes of some US conservatives should be classified in the "axis of evil" category, this week joined the chorus openly expressing doubts about the wisdom of US military action.

Even the Kuwaitis, who suffered the indignity of Iraqi occupation more than 10 years ago, are nervous.

It could still be that the Arab leaders, who are no admirers of Saddam Hussein, are expressing themselves differently in their private talks with the US administration than in their declarations for public consumption. But in a region where longevity and continuity is a feature of the ruling elites, their first concern is self-preservation.

- INDEPENDENT