Two weeks after the militant leader Baitullah Mehsud was assassinated in a CIA missile strike, the Pakistan Taleban that he once ruthlessly led appears to be in disarray.
Fierce fighting between pro-Mehsud and anti-Mehsud militants across the tribal areas and on the edges of Pakistan's North-West Frontier Province has created a situation that analysts say the Pakistan authorities and the United States could try to exploit.
Four relatives of Mehsud were detained by the Taleban on suspicion of having tipped off the security forces before the August 5 missile strike in which he and his second wife were apparently killed while staying at his father-in-law's house, it was revealed.
A senior intelligence official said Ikramuddin Mehsud, Mehsud's father-in-law; his son; one of his brothers and a nephew had been detained two days earlier and were being held in a Mehsud tribe stronghold in the district of South Waziristan. "They are being interrogated by the Taleban in Sararogha," the official said.
The Taleban's suspicions focus on the role of Ikramuddin Mehsud's brother, Saadullah Mehsud, a paramedic who had been called to help treat a stomach problem from which the militant leader had long been suffering. The US missile struck the compound shortly after the medic left.
But the seizing of the relatives is just the latest incident to suggest disarray among the Taleban's various factions, which Mehsud had headed since 2007. Within hours of news of his death emerging, his men mounted attacks on a militant group led by Haji Turkistan Bhittani in the town of Tank.
Clashes between the two groups in Jandola a week later killed 70 people. The Mehsuds burned 30 homes and killed or captured more than a dozen fighters loyal to Bhittani. Bhittani said that with the support of the Pakistani military he had killed 50 militants. Fighting also erupted in Waziristan between the Mehsuds and the rival Wazir tribe.
"There are two levels of infighting," Amir Rana, an expert on Pakistani militancy, said. "First, at the Mehsud level, there is fighting among them for control of the group. The other level is the infighting between the various groups that make up the [Pakistani Taleban]."
The Pakistan authorities could identify elements that are prepared to enter into non-aggression deals. The US is opposed to a policy of trying to identify "good" militants as opposed to "bad militants" and would rather the Pakistan military exploited the Taleban's vulnerability by stepping up operations.
One of Mehsud's deputies, Maulvi Faqir, claimed last week that he was temporarily taking control of the Taleban coalition. He insisted that Mehsud was still alive but was ill, and added that two other senior figures, said to be jockeying for position, had agreed to his ascendancy.
Yesterday, it was reported that Faqir had now claimed one of those individuals, Hakimullah Mehsud, 28, had subsequently been appointed head of the Taleban coalition.
If true, he was likely chosen for his operational capabilities, said Kamran Bokhari, director of Middle East analysis with Stratfor, a global intelligence company. Bokhari added that a revival to some degree of suicide bombings could be expected. "At this point the goal of the [Taleban] is to let the outside world know that it's very much alive and kicking."
The question of who ultimately assumes control of the Taleban in Pakistan will determine whether the group continues to focus on fighting within Pakistan or turns west to fight mainly in Afghanistan.
HAKIMULLAH MEHSUD
Previous role: Military chief and deputy under Baitullah Mehsud. Commanded three tribal regions.
Known for: He first appeared in public to journalists in November 2008, when he offered to take reporters on a ride in a US Humvee taken from a supply truck heading to Afghanistan.
Blamed for: His men have attacked US and Nato supply convoys travelling through northwestern Pakistan en route to Afghanistan.
Claimed: Role in the bombing of the Pearl Continental hotel in Peshawar, attack on Sri Lankan cricket team in Lahore.
- INDEPENDENT, AP
Violent struggle over leadership of Taleban arm
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