US warns China not to turn expected Taiwan visit into 'crisis'

By Peter Baker

New York Times·

1 Aug, 2022 09:15 PM3 mins to read

A frigate fires an anti-aircraft missile as part of a navy demonstration in Taiwan's annual Han Kuang exercises off the island's eastern coast, July 26, 2022. Photo / AP

The United States has warned China not to respond to an expected visit to Taiwan by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi with military provocations, even as American officials sought to reassure Beijing that such a trip would not be the first of its kind and would not represent any change in policy toward the region.

With tensions rising along with Pelosi's travels across Asia, John Kirby, a spokesperson for the National Security Council, said the administration was concerned that China would potentially fire missiles into the Taiwan Strait, send warplanes into Taiwan's air defence zone, or stage large-scale naval or air activities that cross the median line in the middle of the strait.

"There is no reason for Beijing to turn a potential visit consistent with long-standing US policy into some sort of crisis or use it as a pretext to increase aggressive military activity in or around the Taiwan Strait," Kirby said at a White House briefing on Monday (Tuesday NZT). "Meanwhile," he added, "our actions are not threatening, and they break no new ground. Nothing about this potential visit — potential visit — which by the way has precedent, would change the status quo."

Kirby did not say whether US intelligence agencies had detected any concrete indications of Chinese actions, but he was unusually specific in outlining the possible responses that the United States anticipated. White House officials have privately expressed concern that a visit by Pelosi would touch off a dangerous cycle of escalation in Asia at the same time Washington is already consumed with helping Ukraine fight off Russia's invasion.

US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Singapore's Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong at the Istana Presidential Palace in Singapore on August 1, 2022. Photo / AP

In fact, he addressed the Taiwan friction moments after the White House announced another US$550 million (NZ$868.5m) in arms to be sent to Ukraine, bringing the total to more than US$8 billion since the invasion began in February and underscoring how much of America's military-industrial capacity has been invested in the war in Europe.

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Pelosi, a longtime China hawk, has not confirmed that she plans to visit Taiwan even as she stopped in Singapore on Monday, but all indications suggest that she will make a stop on the self-governing island without prior announcement. She originally planned to visit Taiwan in April but called off that trip after testing positive for the coronavirus.

Kirby said American officials did not necessarily anticipate an attack by China in response but cautioned that the possible military demonstrations of force could touch off conflict by mistake. "It does increase the risk of miscalculation, which could lead to unintended consequences," Kirby said.

He seemed particularly intent on getting the message through to Beijing that it should not view any visit by Pelosi as a fresh provocation by the United States since she would not be the first speaker to go there; Speaker Newt Gingrich stopped in Taiwan in 1997. Kirby also stressed repeatedly that the United States still subscribed to its one-China policy of not recognising independence for Taiwan.

"We've laid out very clearly if she goes — if she goes — it's not without precedent," he said. "It's not new. It doesn't change anything."

This article originally appeared in The New York Times.