US sees chance of peace hinging on Arafat successor

12.20pm


WASHINGTON - US officials hope Yasser Arafat's death will offer a new chance for Middle East peace but said it depends on who replaces him, how much power they wield and whether they have the legitimacy to strike a deal.

"I think we've got a chance," US President George W Bush said several hours before the 75-year-old Arafat was declared dead at a French hospital. Afterward, the US president called it "a significant moment" for the Palestinians in their quest for peace and an independent state.

Assistant Secretary of State William Burns will represent the United States at Arafat's funeral, an official below the many European foreign ministers, African presidents and Arab leaders attending, and a choice that drew criticism Washington was missing a chance for a fresh start with the Palestinians.

US officials played down the idea of any quick, dramatic change in their policy with the demise of the Palestinian leader, whom the Bush administration viewed as a corrupt, untrustworthy failure and an obstacle to peace.

Instead, they pointed to the problems that have long stymied efforts to resolve the dispute - with ending Palestinian violence against Israelis at the top of their list - and the uncertainty of who will succeed Arafat.

"It really depends on what comes out of this and who's running the show," said one official who asked not to be named.

"No matter how creative or how bold you want to be, as long as there continue to be suicide bombers blowing up buses in Israeli cities there's a limit to what can be accomplished."

"If you want to create a Palestinian state, there has got to be a responsible Palestinian partner," added a senior US official who suggested it may be harder for a successor to make peace than for Arafat, whose status as a Palestinian icon might have persuaded his people to accept compromises.

FEAR OF VIOLENCE

There have been no serious peace negotiations since the collapse of former US President Bill Clinton's efforts to broker a deal in 2000, which coincided with the start of the four-year old Palestinian uprising against Israel.

Two years into his presidency, Bush said Arafat had failed his people and decided to boycott him in the hope that a new Palestinian leadership would emerge.

With the US-backed "road map" peace plan all but dead, US officials have pinned their hopes on Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's plan to withdraw from all settlements in Gaza and four in the West Bank to revive peace efforts.

US officials and Middle East analysts fear internecine violence among the Palestinians if there is a power vacuum after his death and believe this could make it harder for Sharon to withdraw from Gaza. In addition, they are bracing for the possibility of increased attacks against Israelis.

Secretary of State Colin Powell pledged Washington would "do all we can" to help Palestinians achieve peace and said he hoped for calm in the Middle East. The State Department also warned US citizens that Arafat's death "has the potential to produce demonstrations and unrest throughout the region."

On Wednesday, Powell said "it remains to be seen" whether new Palestinian leaders capable of choking off militant violence against Israel emerge.

"If that kind of leadership emerges ... then we stand ready to work with them."

Just when the United States might re-engage no one, including Powell, is willing to hazard a guess.

Brookings Institution analyst Flynt Leverett, who served on the National Security Council under Bush, said he was worried the administration would botch the chance presented by Arafat's death, calling its diplomacy "incompetent" and its decision not to send Powell to the funeral "a missed opportunity."

Critics argue Bush has done little to help the Palestinians and that he undermined them by giving Israel assurances in the spring that it could not be expected to give up all West Bank settlements or to accept the return of Palestinian refugees.

Asked how hard the administration would work for peace, one US official said: "I don't know. Frankly, I look at the landscape and I (ask) what's going to fundamentally change?

"The fundamental differences remain: the issue of settlements, of territorial contiguity, of the persistence of terrorist attacks and of a radicalised (Palestinian) movement ... I don't see any of those changing in any material way."

- REUTERS