US on course for 'complete victory', says Bush

US President George W. Bush speaks about the war in Iraq at the United States Naval Academy in Annapolis. Picture / Reuters

WASHINGTON - President Bush said yesterday that the US was on course for "complete victory" and he ruled out any firm timetable for the withdrawal of US troops from Iraq.

Instead he declared that Iraqi own forces themselves were beginning to take the lead in the battle against the insurgency.

In a speech aimed squarely at restoring morale on the home front, and meet the growing clamour for a pull-out, Mr Bush set out what critics say he has conspicuously failed to deliver: a clear exit strategy from the two-and-a-half-year conflict.

In the midst of a war that has cost the lives of over 2,100 US troops and which public opinion has turned decisively against the President, he was attempting to persuade the home front that, despite evidence to the contrary, they were winning.

Victory would come, he said, thanks to the same Iraqi forces which critics say are demoralised, divided and ineffective.

In front of a cheering audience at the US Naval Academy in Annapolis, Mr Bush held out the prospect of a gradual troop withdrawal, amid a new approach that would see American soldiers move out of Iraqi cities and make fewer patrols, leaving that task to newly trained Iraqi soldiers and police.

"As Iraqi forces gain experience and the political process advances, we will be able to decrease our troop level in Iraq without losing our capability to defeat the terrorists," Bush said, backed by a gold and blue banner proclaiming "Plan For Victory."

But, he added, decisions about troop levels would be dictated by conditions on the ground in Iraq and the judgement of American commanders - "not by artificial timetables set by politicians in Washington."

In practical terms, neither the 30-minute speech, nor a 35-page 'National Strategy for Victory in Iraq' issued by the administration beforehand, offered great novelty.

The aim was to convince a public deeply sceptical about the handling of a war that has taken the lives of 2,100 US troops and is costing $6bn a month, that the White House had a policy beyond a mantra-like repetition of 'stay the course.'

Amid polls showing that a majority of Americans think the US is bogged down in a Vietnam-like conflict, and that the war has made America more, not less, vulnerable to terrorism, Mr Bush's approval ratings have slumped to a dismal 37 per cent, the lowest of his Presidency.

The key, according to Mr Bush, is that the Iraqis themselves assume responsibility for securing their country.

He acknowledged there had been "some setbacks" in the creation of a capable force, and that the performance of Iraqi troops was "still uneven in some areas."

Overall however progress was being made, the President declared, claiming that over 120 army and police battalions (with an average strength of 700)were ready to fight unaided, while 80 more battalions were in combat alongside coalition forces.

Iraqi security forces were helping regain control of the country: they were helping "turn the tide in freedom's favour."

But these figures are hotly contested by war critics (and challenged even by many US commanders) who say only a tiny handful of Iraqi units are able to fight entirely on their own, and - despite anecdotes of pride and patriotism offered by Mr Bush yesterday - morale was anything but high.

While Republicans hailed the speech as a clear and realistic blueprint for the future, Democrats were scathing.

Harry Reid, the Senate minority leader accused Mr Bush of "recycling his tired rhetoric of 'stay the course.'"

He had "again missed an opportunity to lay out a real strategy for success in Iraq that will bring our troops safely home."

Senator Edward Kennedy, a harsh critic of the war, described the speech as "a continuation of a political campaign to shore up the failed policies in Iraq." It provided no way of measuring whether the US was actually achieving its goals: "It does not respond to what the American people want.

"On the essentials Mr Bush did not give an inch. He again portrayed Iraq as "the central front" in the war on terror, arguing that a precipitate US departure would send precisely the wrong signal to its enemies.

Some were calling for a deadline but they were wrong.

"Pulling our troops out before they achieve their purpose is not a plan for victory," he declared.

"America will not run in the face of car bombers and assassins so long as I am your commander-in-chief."

There were a few hints of change - but on tactics, not on underlying strategy.

"If by 'stay the course' they mean we will not allow the terrorists to break our will, they're right," he said.

"If by 'stay the course' they mean we will not permit al-Q'aida to turn Iraq into what Afghanistan was under the Taleban, they're right as well." But if critics interpreted 'stay the course' as an inability to learn from experience and to adjust tactics on the ground accordingly, "then they're flat wrong."

The new White House document defines who the US sees as the enemy in Iraq, and lists three groups in declining order of size.

For the first time it acknowledges that the largest group of insurgents consists of 'rejectionists,' primarily Sunnis who prospered in the Saddam Hussein era.

The document argues that this resistance will diminish if a new democratic government that emerges from the December 15 parliamentary election protects minority rights.

The second group are so-called "Saddamists," active members of the former regime who still retain influence.

Their power, says the administration, will ultimately prove no match for better organized Iraqi security forces.

In contrast to its early insistence that foreign fighters were the main foe, the White House now concedes that terrorists linked to al Qaeda, who say they want to establish an Islamic empire, are the smallest component of the insurgency.

- INDEPENDENT