President Joe Biden's speech was hosted by the Democratic National Committee on Nov. 2. "We can't take democracy for granted any longer". Video / AP
Following his defeat in 2020 the key question for Donald Trump is what he can do differently this time to win.
The answer is already becoming clear. He plans to be less belligerent, more forward-looking, with an increased focus on policy rather than rhetoric. It will be a more restrained Trump in 2024.
Rages that alienated many suburban women voters last time, and ultimately lost him the election, will be contained. For the same reason, he will not rejoin Twitter.
Instead, he will seek to explain the America First agenda in more depth, and why it would make independent voters better off than they are now.
Trump is widely expected to announce his 2024 candidacy in what he called a “very big announcement” at Mar-a-Lago on Nov 15.
But he talked about these subjects less than he used to, and not with the old venom. January 6 was barely mentioned.
Instead, over two hours, there was a more teleprompter-driven focus on what he had done in the White House, and what he would do next time, including making America energy independent and reducing petrol prices.
It is notable that Trump is once again being advised by Kellyanne Conway, his successful campaign manager in 2016.
On Monday she appeared on Fox & Friends, one of Trump’s favourite shows, having just talked to him beforehand.
Conway said the “way to win” in 2024 was laid out in the afterword to her recent book Here’s the Deal:
In that afterword she outlines a more positive and unifying approach than 2020, writing: “As I’ve told President Trump, elections are about the future, not the past.”
To be successful he must “articulate and explain” the policies of America First.
“People want a fighter, and not to simply fight with others, or for a narrow cause...a fighter who fights for them,” Conway wrote.
By “them” she meant the American people as a whole.
To simply attack Joe Biden would be “short sighted,” she wrote. “If we solely blame his unfitness on his mental acuities, we are excusing his policy decisions.”
Instead, Trump should calmly skewer Biden for squandering energy independence, failing to tackle crime, the chaotic Afghanistan withdrawal, and emboldening Russia, China and Iran.
Kellyanne Conway. Photo / AP
Trump appears to have seen the potential benefit in this more disciplined approach.
At one point there had been a plan for him to announce his 2024 candidacy at the Latrobe rally. Some of his advisers, including Conway, were against, suggesting he should not “step on” the midterm candidates.
At the rally Trump said he wanted the focus to be on Mehmet Oz, the Republican Senate candidate in Pennsylvania, rather than himself.
The former president then went on to tell a story in which he himself had come off second best.
“That’s self-deprecating, I hate to admit it...” he smiled.
In previous elections Trump tended not to tell self-deprecating stories.
In Latrobe his closing refrain, vowing to “make America great again” was delivered sotto voice, rather than shouted as he used to in the past.
Whether he ends up proving less divisive or not this time, the prospect of Trump winning again in 2024 is increasing.
Political betting websites now make him the favourite.
He would first have to overcome a potential challenge for the Republican nomination from Florida governor Ron DeSantis, but he leads DeSantis in all polls.
In the general election Biden would be his likeliest opponent. But Biden’s approval rating as president is lower than Trump’s was.
If Trump does return it would be perhaps the most improbable comeback in American political history.
But the stars have aligned for him. America has an unpopular Democrat president and faces a looming recession, an illegal immigration crisis, crime waves, and a war in Europe that Trump claims he could have prevented.
When he left office petrol cost an average of $2.37 a gallon. Now, it is $3.80. And inflation is above 8 per cent.
A Wall Street Journal poll showed that white suburban women voters now favour Republicans by 15 per cent. In August, Democrats had a 12 per cent lead.
There has been a collapse in confidence in the economy among that group, which makes up 20 per cent of the electorate and was key in 2020.
If Trump can stick to Conway’s plan, and not alienate them again with Twitter tirades, then the path back to the White House is clear.
