A supporter of US President Donald Trump listens to him speak at a campaign rally in Pensacola, Florida. Photo / AP
A supporter of US President Donald Trump listens to him speak at a campaign rally in Pensacola, Florida. Photo / AP
Two years of political volatility will culminate on Wednesday NZT when US voters for the first time since the stunning 2016 election render a nationwide judgment on whether Trumpism is a historic anomaly or a reflection of modern-day America.
As the Midterms roared into their final weekend - with the biggest names in both parties exhorting their followers to vote - uncertainty enveloped the contest amid signs that tightening races appeared headed towards dramatic finishes.
Just how many House seats Democrats might pick up - they need a net gain of 23 to win the majority - remained unclear. Republicans are favoured to keep control of the Senate, but enough top-tier races from Florida to Nevada to Tennessee and Missouri were sufficiently close that the outcome was in doubt. And in two closely-watched governor races, where African-American Democrats in Georgia and Florida are seeking to make history, the contests looked to be coming down to the wire.
Much is on the line.
President Donald Trump has been acting like a candidate on the ballot, staging daily double-header rallies and blasting out ads for Republicans up for election. Given the stakes for his presidency, he might as well be.
A knot of investigations. Partisan gridlock. A warning shot for his re-election bid. Trump faces potentially debilitating fallout should Republicans lose control of one or both chambers in Congress, ending two years of GOP hegemony in Washington. A White House that has struggled to stay on course under favourable circumstances would be tested in dramatic ways.
On the flip side, if Republicans maintain control of the House and Senate, that's not only a victory for the GOP, but a validation of Trump's brand of politics and his unconventional presidency. That result would embolden the President as he launches his own re-election bid.
Wednesday brings the first test of whether the outpouring of liberal energy - visible in the sea of pink hats during the Women's March as well as the record number of female candidates, the protesters who showed up at airports after the Muslim travel ban and the activists who coalesced around "the resistance" - can be converted into votes for what had been a beleaguered Democratic Party. It also will demonstrate whether Trump can mobilise his army of backers - "the silent majority," as he termed it in 2016 - to vote for other Republicans.
President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence wave to supporters at the rally in Pensacola, Florida. Photo / AP
The outcome will set the tone for the bigger battle to come, the 2020 presidential race, with Trump testing his messages and what is likely to be a crowded field of Democrats scouring the landscape for clues about how to challenge the President.
The anxiety and energy are palpable on both sides.
Trump, closing the campaign with racially-charged warnings about an approaching migrant "invasion," told cheering supporters in Indiana that the country will decide whether "we let the radical Democrats take control of Congress and take a giant wrecking ball to our economy and to our future". Former President Barack Obama told supporters in Miami that the "character of our country is on the ballot".
A sense of foreboding was setting in for many Democrats, who want to believe the experts who say their party has an edge in the battle for the House but recall the pain of their misplaced optimism two years ago. They are haunted by the failure in 2016 to turn out enough black, Hispanic and young voters - and can't fathom how they will feel about their country if the GOP prevails again.
"It all started in 2016. I sat there and cried that night," said Stacee Wilhite, 41, who became involved in politics this year for the first time, campaigning for a Democratic candidate north of Los Angeles. "We tell each other, 'We can't let up. We have to keep pushing. Just look at what happened in 2016.' We could lose by one seat. That's what makes us so nervous."
The intensity on both sides has been apparent in the surge of early voting. More than 33 million early votes have been cast, surpassing the 2014 Midterm voting totals and in some places approaching presidential-level turnout, according to Michael McDonald, an associate professor at the University of Florida who tracks early voting.
Supporters of President Donald Trump in Pensacola, Florida. Photo / AP
Adding to the tension are the simmering, raw emotions that remain after an outbreak of apparently politically motivated violence. First there was a string of mail bombs sent to Trump critics by a supporter of the President. Then came the massacre of 11 Jews in a Pittsburgh synagogue, allegedly carried out by an anti-Semitic gunman who had espoused anger at the same caravan of refugees that has drawn the ire of Trump and his allies.
Many Democrats have argued that Trump's response to those tragedies - further stoking fear and trying to run ads that CNN deemed too racist to put on television - have helped them attract previously pro-GOP suburban voters, just as Trump built a new coalition in 2016 by usurping working-class voters who had been loyal Democrats.
If Republicans see large losses, Trump could be forced to recalibrate and give Democrats a chance to pounce - issuing subpoenas, launching investigations and potentially starting impeachment proceedings. But if Republicans maintain control, their victory could reaffirm Trump's vision of the country, emboldening him to pursue his immigration policies, crack down on Special Counsel Robert Mueller's investigation and renew efforts to repeal the Affordable Care Act.
