There will also be pressure on the Democratic House majority to impeach the President. That's especially true given the sheer number of Democratic Party officials who are about to announce their candidacy for president in 2020 and their desire to distinguish themselves with Democratic voters with especially tough criticism of an unpopular President. Democrats will likely wait until special counsel Robert Mueller delivers a report on possible criminal conspiracy between the 2016 Trump presidential campaign and the Russian Government and the possibility that Trump has obstructed justice during the investigation. But depending on what Mueller finds, Democrats will have a hard time ignoring pressure to move toward impeaching Trump.
Trump will respond to this pressure and criticism with signature defiance, and his drive to demonstrate continuing political virility may lead him to search for foreign (as well as domestic policy) villains. The likeliest candidates for this role are Iran, Mexico, and China, but he'll remain combative even with traditional US allies in Europe and elsewhere.
Iran has proven a popular target for Trump's aggressive approach to foreign policy.
Trump's desire to distinguish himself from Obama, who counted the nuclear deal with Iran among his signature achievements, will be a recurring theme as the 2020 election approaches.
Mexico is another country that Trump appears ever ready to criticise. Replacement of the North American Free Trade Agreement (Nafta) with the new USMCA deal with Canada and Mexico removes one obvious point of contention. But the President's confidence that illegal immigration provides a reliable boost with his support base will keep the Government of incoming President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador on edge.
North Korea is more likely to escape Trump's pressure. The President may issue warnings to force Kim Jong Un to offer concessions that advance negotiations over denuclearisation, but just as Trump believes Obama owns the US relationship with Iran, he knows that he owns the effort to disarm North Korea. Admission of failure is unlikely as Trump works to build a list of accomplishments he can carry into the next election.
Finally, there are many reasons why the Trump Administration's trade dispute with China will likely continue well into next year, whatever tentative agreements Trump and China's President Xi Jinping announce in the meantime. Trump's desire to persuade voters in politically crucial manufacturing states that he can force major trade concessions from China will be an important one. And there's close to a Washington consensus that a harder line is needed against Beijing on a host of issues.
China may well decide to wait Trump out. Kim Jong Un has already provided other governments the best model for how to deflect Trump's pressure over the next two years: By smiling, offering agreements in principle, stalling negotiations with the US, and trying to wait until Trump is defeated in 2020. But Trump's political talents should not be underestimated, and many presidents, including Obama, have recovered from Midterm defeats to win re-election, sometimes easily.
It's a risky move. But for any government in Trump's target sites, there may not be a more effective defensive strategy.
Ian Bremmer is the president of Eurasia Group and author of US vs Them: The Failure of Globalism.
