A Ukrainian soldier holds along the line of separation from pro-Russian rebels near Debaltsevo, Donetsk region, Ukraine. Photo / AP
A Ukrainian soldier holds along the line of separation from pro-Russian rebels near Debaltsevo, Donetsk region, Ukraine. Photo / AP
US intelligence officials have determined that Russia is planning for a possible major military offensive in Ukraine that could begin in the new year.
The new intelligence suggests that Russia is planning to deploy an estimated 175,000 troops and almost half of them are already deployed along various points near Ukraine's border, according to a Biden administration official who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the findings.
The new findings come after US President Joe Biden pledged new measures on Friday to discourage any invasion by Russia.
"What I am doing is putting together what I believe to be... the most comprehensive and meaningful set of initiatives to make it very, very difficult for Mr Putin to go ahead and do what people are worried he may do," Biden said Friday.
An unclassified US intelligence document obtained by the Washington Post contained satellite imagery showing Russian forces assembling at four locations near Ukraine.
The document counted 50 battlefield tactical groups along with tanks and artillery and estimated the number of troops at 70,000.
While this is lower than the 94,000 that Ukraine has estimated are deployed near its border, the US intelligence forecasts up to 175,000 could eventually be deployed. It said formations of troops were being moved around near the border "to obfuscate intentions and to create uncertainty".
"The Russian plans call for a military offensive against Ukraine as soon as early 2022 with a scale of forces twice what we saw this past spring during Russia's snap exercise near Ukraine's borders," an administration official told the Post, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive information.
"The plans involve extensive movement of 100 battalion tactical groups with an estimated 175,000 personnel, along with armour, artillery and equipment."
This assessment was based partly on photos taken by spy satellite that "show newly arrived units at various locations along the Ukrainian border over the last month," the official said.
Ukrainianian and US defence officials meet at the Pentagon. Photo / AP
The newly published intelligence came after US Secretary of State Antony Blinken told European allies this week that the US has "evidence that Russia has made plans for significant aggressive moves against Ukraine".
Speaking during a trip to Europe, Blinken said it was unclear whether Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, had reached a final decision to invade.
"We do know that he is putting in place the capacity to do so on short order should he so decide," he said, a day before meeting Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister. "We must prepare for all contingencies."
Putin has dismissed reports of another invasion as rumours, while Lavrov has warned against US military activity near Russian borders. "The nightmare scenario of military confrontation is returning," Lavrov said this week.
The Kremlin, alarmed by the expansion of Nato into former Warsaw Pact countries, is seeking guarantees that Ukraine will not be allowed to join the Western alliance.
But Biden has rejected the demand: "I don't accept anyone's red line," he said.
"Nato member countries decide who is a member of Nato, not Russia," White House press secretary Jen Psaki said during a briefing Friday. "That is how the process has always worked and how it will proceed. I think it's important to remember where the provocative action is coming from. It's not the United States. It's not Ukraine."
A Ukrainian soldier at a fighting position on the line of separation from pro-Russian rebels near Debaltsevo, Donetsk. Photo / AP
On Saturday the Kremlin said that Putin and Biden will talk a secure video call to discuss Ukraine, bilateral ties and implementing agreements reached at their Geneva summit in June.
Biden and Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the Ukrainian president, have also tentatively agreed to have a call next week, according to a person close to the Ukrainian president who was not authorised to speak publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity.
Psaki said US officials have "engaged in the possibility" of a Biden-Putin call. White House officials did not respond to a request for comment on the expected call with Zelenskiy.
"It certainly would be an opportunity to discuss our serious concerns about the bellicose rhetoric, about the military buildup that we're seeing on the border of Ukraine," Psaki said of a potential Biden-Putin call.
