US election: Five states that will determine Donald Trump v Joe Biden

President Donald Trump speaks in the East Room of the White House. Photo / AP

Dozens of states have been called in the US presidential election, but it is still very much up in the air.

Donald Trump claimed Florida in an early win, and he's seeing leads in key battleground states, but there are still votes to count.

Trump won in Indiana, Arkansas, Kentucky, West Virginia, South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, Oklahoma Nebraska, Louisiana, Wyoming, South Dakota, North Dakota, Missouri, Utah, Wyoming, Idaho, Ohio, Texas, Iowa and Tennessee.
Joe Biden won in Vermont, Massachusetts, Maryland, Delaware, Illinois, Connecticut, New Mexico, New York, New Jersey, New Hampshire, Maine, Colorado, the District of Columbia, Washington, Oregon, Virginia, Hawaii, Minnesota, Arizona and California.

NYT Update:

Michigan results with 56% in:
Trump 53%
Biden 45%

Pennsylvania results with 63% in:
Trump 57%
Biden 42%

Wisconsin results with 72% in:
Trump 51%
Biden 47%

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) November 4, 2020

Joe Biden won in Vermont, Massachusetts, Maryland, Delaware, Illinois, Connecticut, New Mexico, New York, New Jersey, New Hampshire, Maine, Colorado, the District of Columbia, Washington, Oregon, Virginia, Hawaii, Minnesota, Arizona and California.

It leaves Biden on 238 Electoral College votes out of 270 required to win the White House. Trump trails narrowly with 213 Electoral College votes.

There are just seven states yet to be called – Alaska, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

But just five of those – Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia and Northern Carolina – could go either way, meaning they're the interesting ones to watch.

But experts say the votes from the last three could take particularly long to tally up -meaning we could be in for a frustrating wait.

Either way, the victory will be narrow.

After Biden's win in Arizona, the Democrat would likely have to win two of the three 'blue wall' states - Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania - to secure victory.

Biden had trailed in all three, but the remaining votes to be counted will favour the Democrat, the BBC reports.

There are more than 1.4 million vote-by-mail ballots left to count Pennsylvania, and it could take days to tabulate them all.

A live broadcast of President Donald Trump speaking from the White House is shown on screens at an election-night party. Photo / AP

The big cities in Michigan (Detroit) and Wisconsin (Milwaukee) are also yet to fully report, and they will heavily tilt toward the Democrats.

Latest results showed Biden led in Wisconsin by the slimmest of margins - 0.6 per cent according to US Politics Poll.

Meanwhile, Georgia is a wildcard, with the race too close to call because an estimated 4 per cent of the vote remains to be counted. That includes mailed ballots from two counties Biden is winning: metro Atlanta's DeKalb County, as well as Chatham County, which is home to Savannah.

Several counties in the Atlanta area also stopped counting votes after running into technical difficulties.

Wisconsin, 95%+ in:

Biden 49.6%
Trump 49.0%

— US Politics Polls (@USPoliticsPoll) November 4, 2020

If you’re wondering about Wisconsin’s recount rules…

If a candidate comes within 1 percentage point of the winner, the candidate may request a recount. (The threshold was narrowed after Jill Stein's 2016 recount.) There is no trigger for an automatic recount.

— Jessie Opoien (@jessieopie) November 4, 2020

If Biden does win Wisconsin & holds on in Nevada, he’ll be at 254 electoral college votes.

He’d then need 16 more, out of:
Michigan (16)
Pennsylvania (20)
Georgia (16)
North Carolina (15)

So, basically any one of MI, PA or GA would be enough. NC would get him an EC tie.

— Michael Appleton (@michelappleton) November 4, 2020

MICHIGAN - 16 electoral votes

Donald Trump: 51.5% - 2,275,601

Joe Biden: 46.9% - 2,070,685

Reporting: 82%

— The Spectator Index (@spectatorindex) November 4, 2020

If you’re wondering about Wisconsin’s recount rules…

If a candidate comes within 1 percentage point of the winner, the candidate may request a recount. (The threshold was narrowed after Jill Stein's 2016 recount.) There is no trigger for an automatic recount.

— Jessie Opoien (@jessieopie) November 4, 2020

MI Presidential Election Results

Trump (R): 51% (2,217,540 votes)
Biden (D): 47% (2,019,899 votes)

Estimated: 78-92% votes in

More results here: https://t.co/P8otcaDgvj

— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) November 4, 2020

A Democratic win in Georgia would mean Biden only has to carry one of those Midwest states.

Trump can win a second term but he needs to win two of either Pennsylvania and Wisconsin or Pennsylvania and Michigan.

Dana Sherrod, right, celebrates with fellow Republicans while watching Election Day results on television during the Republican watch party at Krause's Cafe in New Braunfels, Texas. Photo / AP

The road home for Trump would likely also need to include wins in North Carolina and Georgia, where he leads by only a narrow margin.

A Japanese and a US flags are placed in front of a TV monitor showing a news programme live broadcasting on the US presidential election between Trump and Biden. Photo / AP