US election betting: Joe Biden back as betting favourite over Donald Trump

news.com.au

4 Nov, 2020 08:06 PM4 mins to read

Betting stations have put odds on Joe Biden winning the US election. Photo / File

Bookmakers in the US were predicting a Joe Biden landslide as Americans voted in the presidential election, but as the vote count dragged on into the evening, things shifted wildly.

By Wednesday evening (NZT), there was a huge swing to Donald Trump, whose odds plummeted to a narrow $1.22.

But this morning, things have swung back dramatically in favour of Biden as the race narrows in key battleground states.

This is how bookies are tracking this morning. Basically, it means for every $1 you put on that candidate, you would get the below in return if they win.

HERE ARE THE LATEST ODDS AT 6.30AM:

TAB

• Biden: $1.43
• Trump: $3.54

LADBROKES

• Biden: $1.39

• Trump: $3.32

BETFAIR

• Biden: $1.39

• Trump: $4.61

SPORTSBET

• Biden: $1.37

• Trump: $3.75

NEDS

• Biden: $1.39

• Trump: $3.10

In 2016, Trump was $2.35 before markets closed ahead of the election.

Biden's highest price was $27.87 in February this year.

The US election has been so popular for TAB that it will hold more money for the historical event than the AFL or NRL Grand Finals and it's the same situation for Sportsbet.

RECORD BREAKING BET

Over in the UK, a British businessman is so confident Trump will win that he has placed a record-breaking bet on the president staying in the White House.

The mystery former banker used private bookies registered in the Caribbean to place a bet of US$5 million ($7.47m), with odds of 37/20, on Trump's win, according to The Sun.

If he is successful, the businessman could be taking home almost US$15m ($22.4m).

A betting industry source told the publication the bet was believed to be "the biggest ever made on politics".

While most indicators predict a Biden victory, if 2016 taught us anything, it's that there's no such thing as a shoo-in.

There has been a huge rush in bets on the US election, providing some major clues about what to expect from one of the most crucial votes in recent history when it comes to the polls – and the betting agencies.

WHAT DID THE POLLS SAY?

On election eve in the US, there had been a flurry of last-minute polling, with the Des Moines Register poll showing Trump beating Biden 48 per cent to 41 in Iowa – a massive swing from its previous survey, which had the race tied.

A poll of New Mexico from The Albuquerque Journal, which showed Mr Biden winning 54-42, was in line with the conventional wisdom that New Mexico was a little too Democrat-leaning these days to be considered a proper swing state.

The latest batch of New York Times/Siena polls covered four different states. Those polls showed Biden up 49-43 in Arizona, 52-41 in Wisconsin, 47-44 in Florida and 49-43 in Pennsylvania.

An EPIC-MRA poll of Michigan had the Democrat leading 48-41. Another, conducted by St Pete, showed him winning Florida by a razor-thin 49-48 margin. And finally, a pair of ABC News/Washington Post surveys had Biden up 51-44 in Pennsylvania, but Trump winning Florida 50-48.

WHAT ARE THE ODDS?

Democratic hopeful Joe Biden has been the clear favourite across the major betting sites in the lead-up to the election.

But as the vote continued into the night, odds switched back in favour of Donald Trump.

Many believe betting odds offer a more accurate election prediction than polls, as people have invested their own hard-earned cash in the outcome.

These were the odds according to some of the major betting agencies, as of November 4 at 6.30pm, so you can see how much they've shifted.

TAB

• Biden: $3.43

• Trump: $1.44

LADBROKES

• Biden: $3.43

• Trump: $1.44

BETFAIR