Donald Trump once again defied expectations on election night. Photo / AP
Donald Trump once again defied expectations on election night. Photo / AP
It was a night of unyielding tension and nail-biting drama as the future of America hung in the balance. Many Republicans went to bed thinking Donald Trump had somehow pulled off one of the greatest Houdini acts in electoral history. But when the sun rose they woke up to claims of victory by both sides and the prospect of seeing the fate of the White House fought over in the courts.
Many pre-election polls had predicted a landslide for Joe Biden. Record-breaking turnout, including unprecedented postal voting, had also pointed to a Democrat advantage, and a rejection of Trump's handling of the coronavirus pandemic.
But the first sign it was going to be a long night, and potentially a cliffhanger, came at 7.01pm (US time) when the first polls closed. An exit poll showed the most important issue for voters, by a mile, was the economy. Some 34 per cent of voters said the economy, 21 per cent said racial inequality, and only 18 per cent mentioned coronavirus.
It appeared to be a vindication of Trump's position that the economy must be fully reopened. Wild swings of emotion followed as a mixture of on-the-day votes, early in-person ballots, and postal votes were counted in different orders in various states, making the race impossible to predict.
Exit polls showed most voters ranked the economy as their top concern, an early sign that Trump might perform better than expected on election night. Photo / AP
Betting markets fluctuated to extremes with both candidates a hot favourite at various points. Biden took an early lead in Florida, the first major battleground state to return large numbers of votes. If he could win Florida it would, in his words, be "all over". However, as votes poured in from populous Miami-Dade County, Trump overhauled him.
There were celebrations in the White House as the president cleared his first big hurdle, and an inquest in the Biden camp over his poor performance with Cuban-American voters. At just 8.38pm the Trump campaign declared victory in the Sunshine State, and he ultimately won it by more than in 2016.
But Biden continued to perform well as votes were counted in the southern, Republican-friendly states of Georgia and North Carolina, and even in early results from Texas. Many eyes turned to Ohio as Biden appeared in with a chance of winning a state Trump took by eight points in 2016. It would also be a key indicator for the key battleground "rust belt" states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin that would come into play later. Biden hunkered down at his house in Wilmington, Delaware with his wife Jill and his grandchildren.
As polls closed on the west coast California, Oregon and Washington were immediately declared for him as expected. But then Trump began racking up big early leads in the Midwest. At 11pm Trump was 13 points up in Pennsylvania with 46 per cent of the state reporting.
In Michigan he was up 11 points with 44 per cent reporting. And in Wisconsin he led by four points with 53 per cent of the vote in. Georgia had turned around and Trump's lead was up to 10 points with 67 per cent reporting.
Democrats couldn't believe what they were seeing as the President led by three points in the Democrat state of Virginia, with 63 per cent of the vote in. And there had been a Trump resurgence in Ohio. Vast amounts of money poured into betting markets, including in China, making Trump the favourite.
Early results weren't looking good for the Biden team, but that would change overnight. Photo / Bloomberg
But then Biden received a lifeline from two unexpected sources - the state of Arizona and Fox News. At 11.20pm Fox News anchor Bill Hemmer did a double take as the networks decision desk declared the southern state a Biden win with just 73 per cent of the vote in.
It was the first state Trump won in 2016 to flip. The White House was furious with Fox News and rang other TV networks asking them not to follow, and they did not. Then the momentum shifted again with a flood of good news for Trump.
Ohio was declared for the President with a similar eight-point margin to 2016. Trump won easily in Iowa, which had been an outside Democrat hope. Joni Ernst, the pro-Trump Iowa senator who had been in danger, was re-elected. Lindsey Graham, the South Carolina Senator and Trump's friend, was running away with a race it had been feared he would lose. The Senate looked safe for Republicans. Florida and Texas were formally called for Trump.
Moments later, after 12.30am, Biden stepped on stage in Wilmington, Delaware. He looked grimly determined, focusing on the good news from Arizona, and urging patience. "Keep the faith guys, we're going to win this," he declared. Just after Biden's three-minute speech, Trump tweeted that Democrats were "trying to steal the election". Twitter censored the statement as "misleading".
Around 2.20am Trump made his own speech, calling for counting to stop and vowing to go to the Supreme Court. Moments after that Biden's win in Arizona was confirmed by The Associated Press.
Donald Trump addressed a group of supporters at the White House late last night and falsely claimed victory. Photo / AP
Amid the remaining battleground states Biden led in Nevada, and Trump narrowly in Georgia. Counting of tens of thousands of postal ballots was delayed in Atlanta, Georgia after a water pipe burst in a counting room at the State Farm Arena.
No ballots were damaged, election officials said. Despite all the complexities it seemed likely whichever candidate won two out of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, would take the White House. Trump was still comfortably ahead in all three.
But both campaigns knew about the so-called "red mirage". Trump's lead was based on in-person voting, and postal ballots were waiting in the wings to be counted. Democrats are much more likely to vote by post.
In Pennsylvania, when Trump spoke, there were still 1.4 million mail-in ballots that had not yet been counted. And 270,000 of those were in the Democrat bastion of Philadelphia. With 74 per cent of the state's votes counted Donald Trump had 2,956,791. Joe Biden had 2,283,656. That was a lead of 673,135. A Biden victory was still very possible.
Condemnation of Trump's speech poured in, including from some Republicans. Leaders in Europe were waking up and seeing with horror that the US election result was going to be a disputed one.
In halls in the Midwestern states they kept on counting through the night. At one Wisconsin counting site they had to stop after running out of printer ink for the counting machines. An election official ran to City Hall to get some. An army of election workers at the Convention Centre in downtown Philadelphia worked on furiously as the world watched and waited with bated breath.
Mail-in ballots continue to be counted in key states. Photo / AP
The bleary-eyed volunteers shifted carefully through hundreds of thousands of mail-in ballots. A few poll workers paced nervously near the Centre yesterday morning. "It's going to be an agonising wait," one told The Daily Telegraph.
"Knowing it could be decided here really puts the pressure on." At 9.30am, Biden overtook Trump in Michigan for the first time. He also overhauled the President in Wisconsin. In both states he led by less than one per cent with over 90 per cent of the vote in.
Biden's campaign declared they were on track to win both those states, and Pennsylvania, by more than Trump did so in 2016. They announced that if Trump got his wish to stop counting votes immediately then Biden would be President.
Today, as America moved into uncertain electoral territory it emerged only 86 per cent of votes in Arizona had been counted late yesterday morning. A data feed error had suggested the figure was 98 per cent.
