After Democrats fared well against MAGA candidates in the midterm elections last year, it might have been reasonable to think that President Joe Biden would have a clear advantage in a rematch against Donald Trump.
Yet despite the stop-the-steal movement, the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v Wade and the numerous investigations facing Trump, Biden and Trump are still tied, each at 43 per cent, among registered voters in the first New York Times/Siena poll of the 2024 election cycle.
The possibility that criminal indictments haven’t crippled Trump’s general election chances might come as a surprise or even a shock, but the result is worth taking seriously. It does not seem to be a fluke: the Times/Siena polls last autumn — which were notably accurate — also showed a very close race in a possible presidential rematch, including a 1-point lead for Trump among registered voters in the final October survey.
Trump’s resilience is not necessarily an indication of his strength. In most respects, he appears to be a badly wounded general election candidate. Just 41 per cent of registered voters say they have a favourable view of him, while a majority believe he committed serious federal crimes and say his conduct after the last election went so far that it threatened American democracy.
But Biden shows little strength of his own. His favorability rating is only 2 points higher than Trump’s. And despite an improving economy, his approval rating is only 39 per cent — a mere 2 points higher than it was in the poll in October, before the midterms. At least for now, he seems unable to capitalise on his opponent’s profound vulnerability.