Unease as military hawk Abe poised to lead Japan

TOKYO - Japan's most important election in years will not be especially democratic; it will be closed to the public and we already know the winner.

But, for better or worse, by the end of this month the world's No 2 economy will have a new leader - and he is already causing political waves.

Today, a million members of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party will select a new party head who will, thanks to the LDP's dominance of the Diet (Parliament) step into the giant shoes of Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi next week.

The public will not have their say until a general election next year.

Although technically a three-way race, the clear election frontrunner and the man anointed by Koizumi as his heir-apparent is Shinzo Abe.

Unlike Koizumi, who was once considered too much of an oddball to lead the country, no one can call Abe a dark horse. The 51-year-old Chief Cabinet Secretary is a well-known conservative with an impeccable political pedigree and a history of making provocative, right-wing statements. With his droopy, teddy-bear eyes and weak chin, Abe is an unlikely looking hawk.

But since coming to national prominence in 2002 when he began a tough-talking campaign against North Korea, he has championed a staunchly conservative agenda that includes reviving the military, revving up patriotism and changing the 60-year-old pacifist Constitution.

After five years of the unpredictable Koizumi, who wound up his term with a valedictory visit to the Yasukuni Shrine war memorial, China and South Korea desperately want relations with Japan to improve.

But with Abe, there is little reason for optimism. Beijing's mouthpiece, the China Daily, said last week: "Those who aspire for better Sino-Japanese ties feel nothing but ... worried."

- INDEPENDENT