UN veto likely to wreck alliances

By CATHERINE FIELD Herald correspondent

PARIS - The future of the United Nations and the strength of ties between Europe and America may hang on the outcome of the impending vote in the UN Security Council on whether to authorise a United States-led war against Iraq.

France seems prepared to use its veto to knock down a US-British-Spanish proposal that gives Iraq until March 17 to demonstrate "full, unconditional, immediate and active co-operation" on disarmament. A vote could take place as early as tomorrow.

Until last week, most of the betting money in Washington and London was that Chirac, having played out his role as peace-loving dissenter, would at the last minute fall into line with the drive towards war, as France did just before the first Gulf War in 1991.

But to their dismay, Chirac has if anything hardened his position.

He now appears even more than ever to be acting on a matter of principle. And his confidence has been boosted by a firm show of solidarity from European ally Germany, and by Russia and China, both signalling they will join France in vetoing a resolution authorising force.

"The messages France is conveying to Washington have strong resonance in Europe, including among governments formally in the US camp," said Robert Hunter, who served as US ambassador to Nato from 1993 to 1998.

The polarisation within the Security Council was highly dangerous, warned Hunter: "If the new resolution is rejected and President [George W.] Bush decides that war is necessary, both US moral standing and the UN's reputation could be damaged needlessly."

Patrick Sabatier of the French daily Liberation said: "Two concepts of the world are set for a head-on collision.

"The United States' view is that stability, peace and security in the post-September 11 can only be assured by its military hegemony, and the UN is the go-between and political support.

"For France, Germany and other countries, peace and security will only exist through multi-polar, peaceful co-operation in a world democracy founded on international law, and only the UN can embody this."

If France wielded its veto, the US would be extremely angry, especially if the war turns out to be long and costly in American lives.

Reprisals could start with denying France a role in shaping post-war Iraq or oil contracts there. Another possibility is retribution by the US on such issues as French airlines' landing rights in the United States.

A clean US victory would rally support to the US among waverers in the European Union and the Eastern European countries that are due to join the EU.

That would isolate France and Germany in "Old Europe" in the scathing terminology of US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld.

Christopher Coker, a security affairs expert at the London School of Economics, predicted the Iraq crisis would lead the US to asset-strip Nato and in future simply use elements or members that suited its purposes.

"The starkly different positions staked out by the US on one side and Germany and France on the other mean the conflict will reverberate long after Baghdad has been disarmed," he said.

"Four post-World War 2 pillars have been impacted by the crisis: the UN, the EU, Nato and transatlantic ties. The extent of damage to these institutions can only be calculated in the coming years."