Ukraine crisis editorial: A deplorable, precisely planned descent into open war

Smoke billows from a power and heating plant after it is was shelled in Shchastya, in the Luhansk region, eastern Ukraine. Photo / AP

EDITORIAL

Russian leader Vladimir Putin has paved the roads into eastern Ukraine with meticulously managed announcements.

First, he claimed Russia's 2014 annexation of Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula should be internationally recognised as a legitimate reflection of the local population's choice, comparing it to a vote for Kosovo independence.

He then sought permission from the upper house, the Federation Council, to use military force outside Russia. This was granted unanimously.

The Kremlin has raised the stakes further by saying that recognition extends beyond the two separatist regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, where an eight-year conflict has killed nearly 14,000 people, to the large parts now held by Ukrainian forces.

For weeks, Western powers have been bracing for an invasion as Russia massed an estimated 150,000 troops on three sides of neighbouring Ukraine. They warned an attack would cause massive casualties, energy shortages in Europe, and economic chaos around the globe — and promised swift and severe sanctions if it materialised.

The sanctions are now being rolled out and envoys called in but this will do nothing to slow the Russian incursion. Putin will be unaffected by sanctions and he knows those who are impacted will be mollified by promises of retaliation.

The Associated Press reports Putin's move to recognise the territories' independence "opened the door" to formalise his hold and send forces in, although Ukraine and its Western allies have long claimed Russian troops have been fighting there under rebel flags. Allegations which, in turn, Moscow denies.

What to call Russia's actions is still being debated. It seems the closer one is to the situation, the murkier the distinctions. EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said, "I wouldn't say that [it is] a fully-fledged invasion, but Russian troops are on Ukrainian soil."

The official line from US President Joe Biden's White House is that an invasion is under way and UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson also noted Russian tanks have already rolled into eastern Ukraine.

As world leaders are still couching terms and considering their responses, legislation that will likely set the stage for a deeper move into Ukrainian territory has also moved through Russia's parliament.

There is an air of inevitability and permanence. The bills envisage military ties between Moscow and the separatist regions, including potential deployment of Russian military bases there.

Russia has long denied plans to invade Ukraine, blaming the US and its allies for the current crisis and describing Ukraine's bid to join Nato as an existential challenge. There is a richness to this allegation as Ukraine stepped up the bid to join Nato only after Russia annexed Crimea.

Putin has worked with typical diligence to get his legislation and public pronouncements lined up, just as his military moved into position to march into Ukraine. As each of his moves passed without a robust reaction from around the world, his rhetoric has become stronger and his plans were executed with more confidence.

Without a firm, unified voice of opposition, Putin will already be looking further into Ukraine.

Open warfare has come to Europe, extending the Northern winter to chill the world.