Turnbull fighting for political survival

CANBERRA - Australian Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull is locked into a fight to the political death as dissenters within his own party erode his support and further strengthen Prime Minister Kevin Rudd's dominance.

Turnbull's fate is now tied closely to Rudd's greenhouse emissions trading scheme, and his ability to persuade the Opposition to back his determination to force the Government to amend legislation that has already been rejected by the Senate.

If the dissenters win, Turnbull has threatened to quit as leader. And if the Senate continues to reject the scheme, Rudd will be handed a trigger to dissolve both Houses of Parliament and call an early election that would crush the Opposition.

Further evidence to support this prophecy was provided yesterday by the latest Newspoll in the Australian, which showed Labor leading the Opposition by 58 per cent to 42 per cent in the two-party preferred vote that decides Australian elections.

This is a considerable erosion of the Coalition's vote at the 2007 election.

Turnbull's personal standing is even grimmer. Although marginally improved since July, his support as preferred Prime Minister hovers at 18 per cent - about the level that drove predecessor Brendan Nelson to the back benches and eventually out of politics, and abysmally behind Rudd's 67 per cent rating.

To add to his woes, Turnbull now faces the loss of one of his most talented young performers, health and ageing spokesman Peter Dutton, who was beaten in a weekend preselection contest despite powerful support from his leader.

Corrosive elements within the Liberal Party have been chipping away at Turnbull's leadership almost from the start, and relations with the junior coalition partner, the National Party, have been stretched close to the limit by Turnbull's determination to push an amended emissions trading scheme through the Senate.

The rural-based Nationals have never wanted a scheme and continue to refuse to support the policy now.

The Coalition was late coming to the climate change table, with former Prime Minister John Howard overcoming his deep-seated scepticism only in the closing stages of his administration as the political mood swung heavily against him.

While some present Opposition dissenters have claimed ignorance of the fact, Howard promised a scheme similar to Rudd's by 2012, agreed with former New Zealand counterpart Helen Clark to harmonise transtasman schemes as much as possible, and had Turnbull as then-environment minister draw up the legislation.

Opponents within the Coalition believe a scheme would damage the economy and cost thousands of jobs. Many doubt the science of climate change.

Most do not want to lock Australia into any position until after the Copenhagen climate change conference at the end of the year, when other countries' plans will become clear.

A survey of backbenchers by the Australian showed that two-thirds of Liberal backbenchers oppose the scheme.

After a series of concessions to vulnerable sectors, Rudd wants his legislation passed in time to boost Australia's credentials at Copenhagen.

Turnbull wants to deal, gaining his shadow ministry's support in negotiating such proposed amendments as exemptions for agriculture and for emissions released during the mining - rather than burning - of coal.

In a series of interviews last week Turnbull said he was imposing his leadership on the party and was insisting it support negotiations with the Government even if Rudd ultimately rejected the proposed amendments and the Opposition then killed Labor's legislation in the Senate.

"I will not lead a party that is not as committed to effective action on climate change as I am," Turnbull told ABC radio.

But opposition to his demands is strengthening, especially in Western Australia and Queensland, where a separate battle is now chipping away at his authority.

The Liberal and National parties have merged into a single body in Queensland, and have rejected Turnbull's bid to ensure that Dutton, his rising star, be given a guaranteed ticket back to Canberra at next year's federal election.

Dutton has held the outer-Brisbane seat of Dickson since 2001. But it is a precarious electorate that has bounced between Labor and the Liberals since its creation in 1993.

A redistribution has now made Dickson a nominal Labor seat that Dutton is not prepared to contest, and with Turnbull's full backing sought Liberal preselection for the safer Gold Coast seat of McPherson.

He was soundly defeated by local candidate Karen Andrews, and the state Liberal National Party has said it will not push anyone aside for Dutton.

Queensland National Senator Barnaby Joyce told the ABC that Turnbull must butt out.