Trump's options on North Korea going from bad to worse

A man watches a television screen showing U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un during a news program at the Seoul Train Station. Photo / AP

Sanctions on North Korea have been tried, and failed. Serious negotiations seem like a pipedream. And any military strike would almost surely bring mass devastation and horrific civilian casualties.

The Trump Administration's options are going from bad to worse as Kim Jong Un's military marches ever closer to being able to strike the US mainland with nuclear weapons. Short of allowing Pyongyang's weapons programs to advance, Trump's options all appear to variations on what's been considered before:

The military option

The US military for years has had a full range of contingency plans prepared for potential strikes on the North to try to disrupt its nuclear programme or dissuade it from developing further. On Sunday, Trump dispatched Defence Secretary Jim Mattis to warn of a "massive military response" if the North keeps threatening the US, while Trump hinted in a call with Japan's leader that the US could even deploy its own nuclear arsenal.

But over the years, the military options have consistently been viewed as unworkable, owing to the sheer horror that would ensue if North Korea retaliated - as would be expected - by striking South Korea.

The North Koreans have massive military assets stockpiled on what is the world's most heavily fortified border.

The US has roughly 28,000 troops in South Korea, and there are hundreds of thousands more American citizens just in Seoul, the capital, with a metro area population of 25 million.

General Joseph Dunford, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has said if war broke out, there would be heavy civilian casualties in the first few days before the US could mitigate the North's ability to strike Seoul.

Trade shutdown

Trump at the weekend declared on Twitter that the US was considering "stopping all trade with any country doing business with North Korea". That would be a dramatic escalation of the longstanding US strategy: increasing economic pressure on North Korea by restricting its access to funds needed for its weapons programmes.

But many countries do business with North Korea - especially China, a top US trading partner and economic behemoth.

Cutting off trade with China, not to mention the others, would devastate the US economy and be incredibly difficult to enforce.

Sanctions and isolation

A total trade shutdown aside, the US has worked for years to squeeze Pyongyang financially and encouraged others to do the same - especially China. In a diplomatic victory for the Trump Administration, the UN last month approved sweeping new sanctions targeting roughly one-third of the North's economy, with China's support.

But the latest nuclear test and recent missile tests suggest Kim is undeterred by those sanctions. And there's strong reluctance from countries including China and Russia, both permanent Security Council members, to do more sanctioning.

Advocates for more sanctions say there's still room to up the pressure.

Diplomatic talks

China, backed by Russia, has been urging an immediate return to talks, predicated on the US halting joint military exercises with South Korea and the North suspending its weapons development. But few in the US Government have advocated direct talks with the North Koreans until their behaviour significantly changes.

In the past, talks with the North have failed to prevent it from advancing its weapons programme for long, and the US has accused Pyongyang of cheating on an earlier agreement.

The Trump Administration has left the door open to talks with the North, and has tried to coax Kim into abstaining from provocative tests long enough to justify a US return to the table. So far, that coaxing hasn't worked.

- AP