Tough road follows freedom in East Timor

The charismatic Xanana Gusmao won an easy election victory in East Timor but, as WARREN GAMBLE explains, he now has a bigger challenge.

Guerrilla, poet and now newly elected President of East Timor, Xanana Gusmao was a reluctant candidate, preferring a quiet life breeding farm animals.

But there was no escaping his political destiny. Once the 55-year-old finally entered the two-man contest for the presidency last year, the result was assured: His farm will have to wait.

The bearded people's hero won in a landslide this week and will see his 27-year freedom struggle crowned on May 20 when he is sworn in and his country celebrates its independence.

Gusmao will then face a new and, in some ways, more difficult struggle: steering a desperately poor nation of 740,000 people to security and prosperity.

New Zealand Minister of Foreign Affairs Phil Goff, who will attend the celebrations, says it will not be easy.

"They have overcome some enormous problems that have held them back but they have some huge challenges ahead."

Among the challenges are the difficult questions of language and aid dependence, as well as the vast task of building government, economic and social structures.

There are the social and reconciliation problems stemming from centuries of Portuguese colonisation, Indonesia's invasion in 1975, its harsh rule (under which an estimated 200,000 East Timorese died), and the bloody aftermath of the 1999 vote for independence.

Preparations for the independence day celebrations illustrate some more practical concerns. The airport in the capital Dili can accommodate only two Boeing 747s at a time, and they can land only in daylight because there is no radar.

And organisers will have to warn people not to tend their crops growing at the edge of the tarmac that day.

East Timor is still overwhelmingly a subsistence agricultural economy, with coffee its only export. Gross domestic product per head, a global measure of wealth, is a paltry $620. Life expectancy is 57; half the population is illiterate and infant mortality is high.

The rebuilding of Dili from the violent rampage of pro-Indonesian militia groups in the wake of the 1999 vote is gaining pace, but some basic services are lacking.

New Plymouth researcher Dave Owens, who worked as a volunteer for a training organisation in Dili last year, says most of the buildings were uninhabitable - no running water, intermittent electricity, and often no roofs.

"The things we associate with normal life had been destroyed and really had not been redeveloped."

While some modern trappings have surfaced - traffic jams, the aroma of espresso coffee, Britney Spears CDs - Owens expects to find much still to be done when he returns next month.

He says the East Timorese he talked to feared the impact of this year's United Nations pullout on security and the economy. Forecasters are expecting an economic contraction this year as the UN mission drops to 100 after independence, from a peak of 1000.

New Zealand will send its final battalion of 650 soldiers next month. After it leaves in November, it is likely that a small group of New Zealand military observers and personnel who are training the replacement East Timorese force will remain, along with an Australian contingent.

Goff says the external security situation has improved markedly in the past 18 months, with fewer incursions from militia based in Indonesian West Timor.

Indonesia is also warming politically to its newly independent neighbour.

Goff says potentially bigger security concerns are internal and range from social unrest over high unemployment to unhappy former combatants.

"Within the country there is a debate between those who emphasise reconciliation and repatriation of militia leaders, and those who seek to prosecute them for war crimes."

Goff says it is far from certain that the UN-trained public service, created from scratch in 2 1/2 years, will be strong enough to maintain a stable and democratic country.

Politically, there are divisions between the new President and the administration's ruling Fretilin party he helped found, although in the afterglow of his election win both sides have promised to work together.

Goff says a language gap also has to be bridged, between the Portuguese favoured by the political leadership, the indigenous Tetum favoured by younger people and the country's other official language, Bahasa Indonesia.

Economically, the new state will struggle, with projections that it will gather only half the tax revenue needed to run essential Government services. Goff says there will be some relief from 2005 when royalties from offshore oil and gas fields begin to flow.

The Australian Government said this week it still hopes that by the May 20 independence day it will have signed a treaty with East Timor sharing the petroleum revenue from disputed seas between the two countries, despite a snag in talks.

Tourism is a potential money-earner with a trickle of backpackers arriving, but the lack of hotels and the dangers of tropical diseases are major deterrents.

Goff says the international community has to ensure the country has enough aid to grow until it can help itself.

Australia has earmarked $140 million in aid this financial year.

New Zealand's $10 million, four-year aid programme to East Timor focuses on basic education, community and natural resource development, and governance building. And aid scholarships bring 10 East Timorese students to New Zealand universities at a time.

Beyond aid, private investment holds the key to continued development. And there are hopeful signs.

An adviser to the director of investment and tourism, Timorese-born Australian Jose Teixeira says investment levels have remained steady for the past year, and he does not expect it to grind to a halt during the UN wind-down.

"We have clay brick factories and asphalt plants going up and there are proposals for sugar mills and mineral water is being bottled here."

Singapore, Indonesia and Australia are the main investors.

One of the first challenges for the new administration is to define itself on the world stage, says Dr Donovan Storey, a lecturer in development studies at Massey University.

"Do they see themselves as a small south-east Asian country or a medium-sized Melanesian country?

"Where do they want to develop economic linkages? Where do they want expertise from?"

Storey says after initially distancing itself from Indonesia, the new East Timorese leadership has softened its stance and is building a relationship with its former oppressor.

Many East Timorese have relatives in Indonesian West Timor, studied in Indonesia or speak the language.

"I would not say they are going to be the best of buddies in the short term but I think they will get to a relationship of mutual understanding."

Storey supervised the thesis of former visiting Massey student Jorge da Conceicao Teme, now holding a senior foreign affairs post in the new administration, which looked at the dangers of the country becoming too aid-dependent.

He says there is a real concern that the country will rely too much on institutions such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank as well as a raft of non-government organisations.

Storey says Gusmao's hero status will be put to the test as the new Government faces up to all its challenges.

"In some respects it is much easier to lead a movement towards independence than run an independent state.

"When you are running against something you can get people behind you. Once you go beyond that and start divvying up what part of the country gets this and that, the everyday politics of development, the divisions will come out."

Feature: Indonesia and East Timor

CIA World Factbook: Indonesia (with map)

Dept. of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Indonesia

Antara news agency

Indonesian Observer

The Jakarta Post

UN Transitional Administration in E Timor

East Timor Action Network