By PAUL VALLELY
A call by Iraq's leading Shia Muslim cleric asking his millions of followers to remain neutral in any fighting has undermined Baghdad's hopes of unleashing "holy war" to expel US and British invaders.
Experts on Shia Islam say word from Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani was also likely to ease tensions around Iraq's holy cities of Najaf and Kerbala, scenes of tough fighting this week, and to limit the risk of clashes between ordinary believers and US-led soldiers.
"Neither the occupying Army nor the local officials, in the presence of such an ayatollah, have authority more legitimate than his," said Hamid Dabashi, a professor at Columbia University and an expert on the Shia.
Such "guidance" to followers should soothe fears of religiously motivated attacks on US-led troops, Dabashi said. But he said the call may be short-lived.
Murtadha al-Kashmiri, a London representative of Sistani, said the cleric had asked followers not to take sides. He denied reports he had issued a fatwa, or formal religious edict.
"According to the information we received, there is no fatwa referring to Americans or Iraq, but he has asked people to remain neutral and not get involved," Kashmiri said.
Under Shi'ite religious law, the ayatollah's authority outranks that of Iraq's secular authorities, including President Saddam Hussein, as well as that of any invading general or Army commander.
US officers, who have given orders to avoid damage to holy sites for fear of inflaming anti-Western sentiment among Iraq's persecuted Shi'ite majority, welcomed the ayatollah's position.
"We believe this is a very significant turning point and another indicator that the Iraqi regime is approaching its end," said Brigadier-General Vincent Brooks in Qatar.
However, Dabashi said the call could be a tactic, or even a ruse, to protect the sacred sites and the true believers from harm at the hands of the invading armies.
Religious law allows Sistani to resort to "taqiyah", or dissembling for the good of the faith, to achieve those goals.
A fatwa from Sistani, issued earlier while he was under the control of Iraqi Government agents, directed the people to resist efforts to topple Saddam. Iraq's Information Minister, Mohammed Saeed al-Sahhaf, said that decree still stood.
"As Muslims, their fatwa is to resist the American mercenary forces - they are evil - and to consider them invaders who should be resisted," he told al-Jazeera television.
Earlier, the Shia Al Khoei foundation in London said Sistani had issued a formal fatwa, directing believers to co-operate with the American-led forces.
It was not possible to contact Sistani himself, who has until recently lived under house arrest on Saddam's orders.
Even if Sistani's call falls short of a fatwa, it could prove as significant a development for the invading forces as any of the military victories of the past few days.
The ayatollah called on Muslims to keep calm, stay at home, not put themselves in danger and not to fight. The ruling could tip the scales of the war.
The ayatollah, who is 73, has been under house imprisonment at his home in the holy city of Najaf by Saddam's secret police for almost a decade. He was freed three days ago when his guards fled as US forces advanced on the city.
His decree coincided with conciliatory noises from the reformist Prime Minister of Iran - a predominantly Shia state - who voiced sorrow for the deaths of American and British soldiers.
US troops have received a relatively warm reception from the 560,000 largely Shia locals after entering the holy city, which is the site of the tomb of Imam Ali, the son-in-law of Mohammed, who Shias believe was the Prophet's true successor.
The tomb is revered and has immense political importance. The Americans have failed to realise this in the past. In 1998 a US air strike killed 17 civilians in Najaf, handing Saddam's Ba'ath regime a serious propaganda tool.
Saddam tried to repeat the trick this time. He stationed troops inside the Ali mosque, from where they fired on the Americans, hoping that US commanders would shell the shrine, in a bid to turn the Iraqi Shias and others around the world against the US.
This time, the Americans were wise to the ploy. A precision bomb took out the Ba'ath party headquarters nearby. But US soldiers were told not to return fire at the men in the mosque.
"We've hit them very hard the last two days, wherever they're firing at us, from homes, from schools," said the American commander, Colonel Ben Hodges.
"But the one place I've absolutely told them they cannot fire is into the mosque."
When the crowds of irate civilians and clerics pressed down on US troops heading towards the grand mosque on Wednesday, their commanders told the soldiers to back off. The situation was defused when the soldiers - their weapons pointing down - pulled back and reassured the clerics they would stay away from holy sites.
The ruse also backfired in the Muslim world. The Shia expatriate group, the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq in Tehran, condemned the Ba'ath regime for putting soldiers into the mosque complex.
One of the first things the US military did on entering Najaf was to seek a meeting with Ayatollah Sistani.
At first the cleric refused to talk to them. But then he promised a response in two days. On Thursday he issued his decree.
Between 60 and 65 per cent of Iraqis are Shias. Under Saddam they have been an oppressed majority. Saddam is a Sunni, as are most of the dominant individuals and groups (such as the Republican Guard) in his regime.
There were tensions between the two groups during the Iran-Iraq war, though the loyalties of Iraqi Shias were complicated by feelings of nationalism. (The Iraqis are Arab, the Iranians Farsi). But during the 1991 Gulf War the Shias rose up against Saddam, with the encouragement of the US Government, who then abandoned the rebels.
Saddam harshly repressed the uprisings, killing thousands of ordinary Shias.
In the years since, the Ba'athist regime has murdered at least four important ayatollahs in Najaf and imprisoned six others. Besides keeping Sistani under house arrest, Saddam has forced other religious leaders to issue fatwas supporting his actions.
In September Sistani issued the ruling calling on Iraqi Shias to fight against the Americans. But that was the first time his theological school had issued such a fatwa and many opposition groups said at the time the fatwa had been issued by Saddam's officials.
The latest decree is the first Sistani has issued since he has been freed. Some Muslim groups immediately said he had been coerced by the US military. But it seems likely that most will accept it as legitimate, regarding the September fatwa as the one that was issued under pressure.
A speech from Irani President Mohammad Khatami in which he was remarkably sympathetic to the allied troops, and Sistani's call for neutrality, suggests a tide is starting to turn.
- INDEPENDENT
Herald Feature: Iraq war
Iraq links and resources
Top cleric tells Iraqis not to resist invaders
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