Tonga goes to the polls next month and while the three-yearly elections are always something of a foregone conclusion - the people only vote for nine representatives of the country's 30-member Parliament - this time there is real optimism that long-sought political reform will follow.
Already the people have been told the King, who hand-picks 12 non-elected cabinet ministers, will for the first time select two from those voted in by the people. He will also select two from the nine elected noblemen.
This may seem a small move but it is a significant first step towards the fully elected Parliament for which pro-democracy groups in Tonga have been working, a goal which at times seemed beyond reach, given the intractable kingly rule which marks out Tonga from its Pacific neighbours.
Auckland-based Taimi 'o Tonga publisher Kalafi Moala has been covering Tongan elections since 1990 and when the news came out about the King's new selections he thought it just window dressing.
But Moala has since visited Tonga and thinks the Government is genuinely offering a gesture for a new beginning. "This year it is zero about reform but, who can we trust? Are these guys reliable? How and when is the issue. Even the crown prince is talking about it, and he's the most powerful man in Tonga."
Moala says Crown Prince Tupouto'a Tupou V announced that in future all the members of Parliament would be elected "although he has not made it clear which proportion would be noblemen and which the people".
Moala says 64 candidates are standing as the people's representatives, which is a record. "And no one is raising any voice against reform. That's significant." A high voter turnout is likely. People are required by law to vote, although it is not enforced, and the usual turnout is about 80 per cent
Moala says seven of the nine people's representatives are pro-democracy and it is thought after the election all will be. This means two will make it to the inner sanctums of cabinet.
Even some of the elected nobles have made a strong stand for reform, including the King's nephew, who warned in the Herald in 2003 the country was heading towards banana republic status, and the Speaker who has indicated he is pro-reform. The King's youngest son, 'Ulukalala Lavaka Ata, who is also Prime Minister, said the widening of Cabinet membership "will be a natural progression of the kingdom's political system."
Moala says the tremendous change in attitudes comes from a convergence of forces, including the "series of disasters which beset Tonga", bashings from the media, and the local push for democracy.
The Tongan passports scheme backfired when millions was lost when Californian Jesse Dean Bogdonoff, Tonga's official court jester, disappeared after investing the money in a company that went bust.
When the Royal Tongan Airlines collapsed owing $12.3 million the Crown Prince started a domestic airline and, in an unpopular move, the Government allowed him to shut out competition.
According to Moala, a shift in public opinion was precipitated by the dismissal of three ministers, including police minister Clive Edwards, who opposed the one-airline policy.
Edwards is now campaigning to win a seat from the people's vote. Moala does not rate his chances.
"Edwards played a major role during the period of the most turmoil in Tongan politics. Now he knows reform is coming but the people have not been fooled. He's really got it wrong, he has absolutely no hope."
Moala says the Government scandals rocked the royal family, which realises there must be reform.
"So for the first time Government leaders are facing the inevitable. They know there will be reform and would like to have a hand in it so at least they are power sharing rather than being ousted."
The atmosphere in Tonga is now "so different. The media can now talk openly with the police. It is an open door policy", and he adds with a laugh "there have been no more raids on our offices".
Leading pro-democracy MP Akilisi Pohiva says the crises led to a major shift in public opinion about how the monarchic system is run.
"People are becoming aware of how things work in our country."
For Pohiva, who is serving his eighth term in Parliament, it has been a long time coming.
In the past five elections Pohiva was the people's most-voted representative in Tongatapu, the largest constituency."We have been criticising the Government for the past 18 years."
Now, with scandals close to the royal family, the once-loyal populace is losing trust in the existing regime.
"To most people there is no option but to bring about change to the system of Government. That is the only viable alternative."
Pohiva says there have never been formal parties in Tonga but at the last election two major informal groups emerged, the pro-democracy candidates and pro-government candidates.
In this election he estimates at least 80 per cent of the candidates support the move towards change to a democratic system. Pohiva does not blame the royal family but the system, which is bound to fail because there are no checks and balances.
"It is dangerous because the King is not accountable to anyone. The structure is vulnerable to temptation and all sorts of evils."
He and others are surprised by the King's intentions to select some elected representatives as cabinet ministers.
"Most people never expected the King would make the move. It is a clear indication from the King that is time for change."
Auckland Tongan community representative Owen Pau'u says many like him still want the right to vote in Tonga because they are citizens and send money back.
Pau'u says the change to select two cabinet ministers from the people's representatives is a positive move towards democracy. "I think the Government, the King and Prime Minister are starting to realise what power the people of Tonga have."
The Election
* Population: 108,000
* Parliament: 30-strong
* Every three years the King appoints 12 cabinet ministers and 18 members of Parliament are elected.
* Nine nobles are elected by 33 nobles and nine people's representatives are elected by general voters.
* Six members of Parliament are elected from Tongatapu, four from Ha'apai, four from Vava'u, two from the Niua islands and two from'Eua.
* This year for the first time the King will appoint four cabinet ministers from the elected members, two nobles and two people's representatives.
* By-elections will then be held to elect another two nobles and two people's representatives to make up the numbers.
Tongan elections - power to the people
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