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Experts were divided yesterday as to whether the attempted assassination of East Timor President, Dr Jose Ramos-Horta, will lead to renewed bloodletting or serve to calm the tiny country's deep political schisms.
Ramos-Horta was last night receiving treatment in Australia after rebels shot and wounded him at his home in Dili. Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao dodged an attempt on his life yesterday. Presidential guards reportedly killed rebel leader Alfredo Reinado.
While some analysts predicted violent reprisals to avenge the killing, others said the death of the renegade army major would restore stability.
Reinado led a group of 600 disaffected soldiers and police who mutinied in April 2006 after claiming they were unfairly sacked by the Government. The dismissal of the soldiers triggered a series of protests that degenerated into street fighting and arson attacks.
Reinado had been charged with murder for his role in the violence, which left 37 people dead and drove up to 150,000 from their homes.
"In the short-term there will be a lot of fearfulness because some of his supporters are still running around with guns but for the long-term, one of the government's major headaches is now out of the way," said Dr Helen Hill, an East Timor expert from Victoria University, Melbourne.
"Anyone intent on destabilising East Timor will have a much more difficult time, now that Reinado is out of the way. My hope is that there'll be an improvement in the security situation. I also think there will be an upswell of sympathy for Ramos-Horta."
Support for Reinado had ebbed away significantly since he hit the headlines in April-May 2006 as the leader of the mutiny. "He gained supporters when he was on the run but that has diminished because he constantly changed his political demands," said Hill. "His main objective seemed to be self-aggrandisement and publicity."
The motivation behind Reinado's apparent coup attempt was unclear. "Maybe he thought he could kill Ramos-Horta and be treated as a hero. Maybe he wanted to be a martyr."
But adjunct professor Norman Day from RMIT University said Reinado's death could spark violent reprisals and would be deeply destabilising for Asia's poorest country.
Ramos-Horta was a careful negotiator and the rebels may have been frustrated with his determination not to give ground in recent talks. "A lot of people would see the only way to deal with him would be to eliminate him," he told Australian Associated Press. "This is very destabilising, just when the place was [getting] back on its feet."
Day predicted Reinado's followers would launch violent retaliation by targeting symbols of East Timor's government within 24 to 36 hours. "It's going to be bad. [Reinado] has a strong following - he's now [achieved] a sort of Che Guevara status."
He cited the Australian Embassy in Dili as among potential targets for Reinado's followers, given Australian forces' role in pursuing the rebel leader. "They made a big lot of enemies out of trying to capture Reinado."
Day said Fretilin, East Timor's largest political party, which is excluded from the country's current coalition government, would be agitating to fill the power vacuum created by Ramos-Hortas emergency evacuation to Darwin for medical treatment.
Fretilin secretary-general Mari Alkatiri, a former prime minister, had felt wronged by Ramos-Horta's endorsement last year of the non-Fretilin coalition government. "I don't think it would be abnormal to think there'd be some [Fretilin] involvement or support in what's happened," said Day.
Ramos-Horta would have been an easy target because his house was protected by little more than a few security guards and a bamboo fence. "In the middle is ... an open outdoor space like a patio and he spends all his time there meeting people. He's entirely visible from the front street at all times."
