KEY POINTS:
For Barack Obama it was a daring move: hold a rally in the heart of New York, the fortress home of his rival, Senator Hillary Clinton.
It seemed to pay off. As he bounded on to the stage in Manhattan's Washington Square in front of a packed crowd of 25,000, he beamed his broad smile and shouted: "Look at this crowd!"
Obama's gamble seemed to have worked. It generated a swath of newsprint in the Democratic stronghold of the city and was designed to send a message to Clinton that she could not even count on the support of her home turf.
Yet the day after the rally - at which those attending surrendered their email addresses - a message from the Obama campaign popped into inboxes across New York. "Thanks for coming out last night," it said, before adding: "We're still shy of our goal of 350,000 people giving to the campaign."
For the fact is, Obama's campaign appears to be caught in the doldrums.
Beneath all the endless public appearances, television interviews and the hype of "Obama-mania" lies a story of a campaign that has completely failed to budge Clinton out of her position as frontrunner. Indeed, Obama has barely moved in the polls since he exploded on to the political scene when he announced his candidacy this year. It is Clinton's poll numbers that have recently been nudging ever higher, not Obama's.
"It's extremely unlikely that Hillary will be denied her party's nomination," said the influential New York Post columnist John Podhoretz.
The story of the Democratic race since Obama entered the field has not been one of a fierce battle or the much expected roller-coaster ride.
Instead it has been a long, steady march of the Clinton machine, keeping other candidates at arm's length and building an ever-larger lead in the polls.
"There is a long way to go, but at this moment the race remains hers to lose," said Larry Haas, a political commentator and former official in the Clinton White House.
A survey of recent polls shows Clinton in commanding form compared with all of her rivals. The most recent national polls show her with a lead over Obama that ranges from 14 per cent to 33 per cent. Clinton is also ahead by about 20 points in New Hampshire and yesterday took the lead among Democratic presidential candidates in a poll in Iowa - the key first voting state.
In fact, Obama has not led the polls in any state recently, not even South Carolina, where many black voters are expected to back him in his quest to be America's first black President. That has raised serious questions over whether Obama can actually appeal to black voters. Some of them have been put off by questions over the "American blackness" of Obama's background, owing to his mixed parentage of a white Kansan mother and a Kenyan father.
In the meantime, Clinton has sought to capitalise on the still huge popularity among many blacks of her husband's time in the Oval Office.
However, many experts warn that it is far too early to write Obama off, pointing out that there are three months to go before actual voting takes place.
Obama's campaign still has many positives. He has raised more money faster than any other Democratic candidate in history. He also has a huge and committed campaign organisation. His public rallies are always attended by thousands of supporters, who show an enthusiasm for their candidate which beats that enjoyed by any of his rivals.
Though Obama is a powerful public speaker, he is also gaffe-prone - unlike Clinton, who seems never to put a foot wrong.
The most likely reason lies not with Obama's failings, but with the successes of the Clinton campaign.
Though often uninspiring, Clinton's public appearances and debate performances have been the epitome of slick, smooth professionalism. She has also run a hyper-controlled media operation. It is a far cry from the freewheeling style of her husband's famous 1992 White House run, where reporters were allowed huge access to the candidate. With Clinton the watchwords are: control, control, control.
But at this time in 2003's Democratic race, Vermont Governor Howard Dean looked set to be the candidate. He was flush with cash, riding high in the polls and Senator John Kerry's campaign was almost bankrupt. Yet three months later Dean's campaign collapsed almost overnight and Kerry romped home in a matter of weeks. Put simply: a lot can happen in the next three months.
Yet sometimes a glimpse of a more truthful picture emerges from behind the official statements. Obama's wife, Michelle Obama, spoke out at an Iowa meeting. Using the sort of frankness that her husband cannot afford, she warned that without a win in Iowa her husband's chances would be slim. Campaign officials quickly moved to distance themselves from her comments, saying all that Obama needed was a strong showing in the state, not outright victory. But it is hard to disagree with Michelle Obama's take.
The Obama campaign has had most of the year to knock Clinton out of her frontrunner's position, and it has failed to land a single blow. Time is now running out. Iowa is shaping up not just to be Obama's first stand against Clinton. It could also be his last.
Observer
