Posters of protesters opposite the Houses of Parliament in London. Photos / AP
Posters of protesters opposite the Houses of Parliament in London. Photos / AP
Cue up another cliff-edge week in Britain's tangled effort to break free from the European Union.
If the whole world went to sleep right now but left the clock ticking, we'd wake up on Sunday with Britain outside the economic bloc.
Since the Brits haven't approved a plan for how to leave, there would be sudden economic and political chaos. The English Channel would be encased in fog.
To prevent that from happening, British Prime Minister Theresa May has been in talks with Opposition Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn, to see if they can come up with a common approach to Brexit.
She is also asking European leaders for another Brexit delay, until the end of June. Their discussions start on Thursday at 4am NZT in the capital of the EU and will probably stretch late into the morning.
Here are a few of the possibilities of where the week could end up.
1) British leaders come up with a plan and look ahead to an orderly exit in May.
After May admitted last week that her own efforts had run aground, she began chatting with Corbyn to see if together they could devise a more popular version of Brexit - one that could get parliamentary approval.
Both Labour and May's Conservative Party are divided over leaving the EU. But the Prime Minister and the Opposition Leader have been batting around ways Britain might remain cosy with the EU after leaving.
In theory, if May and Corbyn strike a deal before early Thursday, May could print out 27 copies for the other EU leaders, and bring it down to Brussels for them to sign later in the day. Britain could be out of Europe with an orderly adieu by May 22.
"Theresa May is leaving no stone unturned to try and resolve Brexit," British Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt said on his way into a meeting of EU foreign ministers. Other European leaders "want Brexit to be resolved as quickly as possible, so do we, so do the British people, so do MPs, and so we are doing absolutely everything we can to try and get a resolution to get Brexit over the line."
No one expects the speedy scenario to work out.
May and Corbyn were already sniping at each other by the end of last week, each accusing the other of failing to negotiate seriously. There's little political motivation for Labour to extend a hand to the Conservatives at this point. And British politicians have shown little ability to work together on Brexit for the past three years. No reason to think they would start now.
A pro-EU protester opposite the Houses of Parliament.
2) EU leaders deny an extension and cast Britain out on Saturday NZT.
This is the one that sets stockpilers' hearts aflutter - and may keep global investors awake all week. The British pound would probably tank. Parts of France and southern Britain could turn into a parking lot while fully loaded trucks wait for customs officials to figure out what to do.
The loudest proponent of a hardline stance toward Britain is French President Emmanuel Macron. He models himself after Charles de Gaulle, the French leader who delighted in provoking conflict with the British. De Gaulle twice vetoed Britain's effort to join the precursor to the EU in 1963 and 1967. Macron could zap them on the way out.
Macron notes that European leaders told May last month that if she wanted a membership extension beyond April 12, she needed to present them with a concrete plan about how she will deliver Brexit.
The EU has too many other problems to be continually strung along in a crisis of Britain's making, Macron's thinking goes. And since there's no concrete plan, there's no reason for an extension, French diplomats in Brussels have been arguing. Belgium and Spain seconded the notion last week, according to diplomats familiar with the discussions.
"It is time for this situation to end," French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said on Sunday. "We cannot live forever on the cusp of Brexit. At some point, there's an exit."
Thread: We've done a UCL-YouGov, 5000+ UK voters – asked people to rank outcomes for Brexit. @HuffPostUK article here https://t.co/DYmfKaVqeH
Main pts: OVERALL, No Deal is LEAST preferred outcome (despite what ERG say), but it is the MOST preferred outcome for LEAVE voters. 1/6 pic.twitter.com/FCtMeMbN4x
Reality check: Yes, a sharp break is a possibility. But this outcome seems unlikely. First, German Chancellor Angela Merkel doesn't want it. She has preferred a more flexible approach that doesn't force Britain out before it's ready. And she is just as powerful as Macron inside European discussions, and probably more so.
Second, the Irish don't want it either, and they have a key voice in the European debate, because of their border with Britain's Northern Ireland. The Irish fear that a hard border would spark fresh sectarian conflict along old lines. So they are pushing for a gentle approach to Britain.
"Because nobody wants no deal, I think the likelihood is an extension," Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar told Ireland's RTE broadcaster. "But what we want to avoid is an extension that just allows for more indecision and more uncertainty."
He said he doubted any single EU country would veto an extension, which requires consensus, given the strong preference of Ireland and others for extra time.
But May knows nothing is certain. So she is flying to Berlin and Paris to meet Merkel and Macron, just to try to smooth the discussions.
Local elections on May 2 followed - unless May secures a deal soon - by EU elections on May 23. Farage’s Brexit party on one side, the TIGers on other. Two fascinating polls await us https://t.co/tEdrLHpglq
This is what May asked for last week in a message to European leaders that at the same time declared she would hold elections to European Parliament. The short extension is intended to buy more time but also keep up pressure on the British Parliament to pass a deal. If the exit date is too far in the future, some in Britain fear no plan will ever develop.
May's request has some sympathy in Brussels - one senior EU diplomat told me last week that her plan was "sensible." Many here fear an interminable prolongation to the discussions, and would be happy to see Britain leave, if it could be done without too much chaos. And some also fear that if Britain sticks around too long, it could hold unrelated EU policymaking hostage to Brexit.
It's possible that EU leaders ultimately settle on this plan - if they're more open to convening in late June to deal with yet another possible cliff edge than they are to offering a longer extension now.
European millennials were born with the privilege of few borders, easy travel and free trade, thanks in part to the European Union. https://t.co/iQhy9BUd51 (1/6)
4) The EU pushes a long delay. Until the end of 2019? A year? Forever?
Brussels policymakers love to create new words, and this one is a "flextension." (Some bloody-minded people are calling it "flextension with a guillotine.")
This is the plan floated by European Council President Donald Tusk. It would set the Brexit date far off in the future. It would calm markets and relieve leaders of the need to fly in to Brussels every few weeks to deal with Brexit issues. And it could be terminated early at any point if the Brits come up with a viable plan to depart the EU (That's the guillotine part.)
Many European policymakers view this as the least bad of a range of unappealing options. Most policymakers do not want Britain lingering in the European Parliament, the EU's legislative body, as it would have to do under this plan. And some fear that the lack of pressure would encourage British MPs to consider a host of Brexit options that might work in Westminster but would never pass muster in Brussels.
But they think it might just be the easiest way to move forward. The EU is great at kicking the can down the road. Some policymakers even allow, if you press them, that they wouldn't mind a forever extension, in the hope that Britain never figures out how to leave the bloc and eventually settles back into its longtime love-hate partnership.
