Think-tank predicts Middle East terror

LONDON - Conditions are ripe for a wave of terrorism to be unleashed in the Middle East, says the influential London based think-tank the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

In a gloomy assessment this week of the prospects for a resumption of peace negotiations, the institute said that it expected the Israeli and Palestinian leaders to "hunker in" until after the inauguration of a new United States President in January.

New research published by the institute showed that the Middle East stockpiled more arms than any other region of the world last year.

Speaking at the launch of the report, the body's Middle East expert, Steven Simon, said: "With respect to terrorist attacks we can certainly expect more ... Should this happen, and conditions for it are ripe, it will certainly set back whatever efforts are being contemplated to renew peace negotiations."

Overall, military spending worldwide reached $US809 billion in 1999, $US60 billion of which was spent by the Middle East.

Although the international arms trade fell slightly in 1999, countries in the Middle East held their ranking as the world's biggest arms customers.

This trend was set to continue in light of the almost total collapse of the peace process, the think tank warned. Its report, called The Military Balance, concluded: "With the underlying tensions of the Middle East and North Africa far from resolved, this remains the world's leading arms market."

Israel was clearly the biggest military power in the Middle East, in terms of quality of fighting men and material.

It withdrew its forces from South Lebanon in June, the most significant regional military event of the year, said the institute. But the Israeli Air Force had set up the Arrow 2 system, its first anti-ballistic missile battery, developed jointly with the United States, at a base south of Tel Aviv.

In terms of cash spent on hardware, Saudi Arabia topped the league; it took delivery of arms worth $US6 billion in 1999. In global terms, military spending was expected to remain at present levels or to rise, said the institute.

"Available military budgets for 2000 and beyond do not indicate any decline other than in Western Europe."

The institute calculated that at least 100,000 people died in armed conflict in 1999 and that 60 per cent of the victims were in sub-Saharan Africa. The world's flashpoints remained Africa, South-East Asia, particularly Indonesia, Latin America, particularly Colombia, and the Middle East.

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