Theatrics unable to mask Democrats' fear

It began with a blessing from a fake priest and ended with a plea from a false news presenter to turn down the political rhetoric for tomorrow's election widely seen as a referendum on President Barack Obama.

The light-hearted "Rally to Restore Sanity and/or Fear" was the most unusual event of the mid-term election campaign, staged by TV satirists Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert. One placard read: "Why am I here?" Another said: "Anyone for Scrabble later?"

Yet the laughter cannot conceal the Democrats' concern over what the future holds. The question is not whether the party will lose but the scale of the loss. Party leaders seem to expect the House to turn Republican while hoping that the Democrats can cling on to their majority in the Senate.

The mood in the US is fiercely anti-incumbent, driven by the Tea Party movement, which has pushed the Republican Party further to the right as the country remains in economic crisis.

The politically polarised debate has been amplified by the 24-hour cable news networks. Vicious attack ads have been funded by corporations, unions and wealthy individuals and opensecrets.org says US$4 billion ($5.2 billion) has been spent.

It remains to be seen whether the mid-terms will be the end of the beginning or the beginning of the end for Obama. In the first case, the Obama Administration may move further towards the centre, a tactic used by President Bill Clinton after the 1994 "Republican revolution" of Newt Gingrich swept Congress.

Obama is not the left-wing radical portrayed by the Tea Party, he is a pragmatist who has already occupied the centre in the past two years, which is partly why he has been deserted by members of his own party and independent voters who believe that the Obama reforms have been too timid.

However as the Washington Post's Dana Milbank put it, in the Republican Party today "there is nobody with the clout to tell the Tea Party-inspired backbenchers when it's time to put down the grenades and negotiate", as Gingrich ended up doing with Clinton.

The Senate Republican leader, Mitch McConnell, has already predicted that the chances of reaching across the aisle would be zero. He says the "single most important thing" for the Republicans will be to deny Obama a second term.

If these mid-terms are to be the beginning of the end for Obama, there are already Democrats sharpening their knives. Opinion polls are starting to show that the supporters of Hillary Clinton, who challenged him for the Democratic nomination before becoming a loyal Secretary of State, are peeling off from Obama. But things could change if the economy turns around and prosperity returns to the middle classes.

There is a danger sign, though. The President is now a man called "dude" by Stewart, the ultimate indignity after his political enemies cast doubts on his religion and the place of his birth. He was heckled by Aids protesters at a rally in Connecticut at the weekend as he raced across the country to shore up the Democratic vote.

It could be that we are witnessing the diminishing of President Obama, now derided for confiding to Stewart on his Daily Show last week: "Yes we can, but ..."