Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and his Labor Party have come out in support of a yes vote, while opposition leader Peter Dutton and his Liberal Party are pushing the alternate side of the debate.
This type of division does not generally bode well for a referendum.
“Traditionally, in Australia, referendums that have bipartisan support in the Federal Parliament do quite well,” says McIlroy.
“But where there is a partisan split, as we’re seeing with The Voice, they traditionally go down.”
Albanese did initially try to get cross-party support from Dutton, but an agreement could not be struck.
“There was some opportunity for Dutton to either support The Voice or give his MPs a conscience vote and not oppose it, but the politics really got in the way,” McIlroy.
“Peter Dutton saw an opportunity to oppose The Voice and push back strongly on the government’s agenda – and that has changed the dynamic.”
The experiences in Australia serve as a warning that New Zealand should proceed cautiously when it comes to putting controversial – and complex – issues up for a public vote.
Aotearoa could face a similar conversation if the ACT Party achieves its campaign goals and gets a referendum over co-governance and the principles of Te Tiriti o Waitangi.
And referendums could become commonplace, with NZ First campaigning on the abolition of MPs’ conscience votes and having the voting public decide moral calls.
“Most people don’t spend their days thinking about constitutions, government treaties,” says McIlroy.
“When millions and millions of people are asked to vote on it, there’s an education campaign that has to happen. If you’re going to cast an informed ballot, you need to understand the proposal. One lesson that we can take out of The Voice debate is that good information needs to come fast and from reliable sources to help people understand the parameters of the debate.”
Listen to the full episode of The Front Page podcast to hear an in-depth discussion on The Voice referendum and for further details on what New Zealand could learn from the Australian experience.
The Front Page is a daily news podcast from the New Zealand Herald, available to listen to every weekday from 5am. It is presented by Damien Venuto, an Auckland-based journalist with a background in business reporting who joined the Herald in 2017.
You can follow the podcast at iHeartRadio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.