“This was the first missile to hit Nato territory since the conflict began,” Reymer says.
“That just sent shivers up everybody’s spines. This was the nightmare that everybody in the West has been hoping it would never come to. People were worried about what this might mean in terms of escalating the war.”
Under the Nato agreement, the 30 member states would treat an attack on one as an attack on all if certain conditions are met. If a NATO member suffers an attack, there’s generally an investigation to determine whether it was deliberate or accidental. Based on the findings of that investigation, the nation attacked would then be able to call on support from other NATO countries, each of which will then determine the support they’re willing to give.
The latest investigations suggest that the most likely scenario was that the Ukrainian army shot an air defence missile up in an attempt to intercept one of the more than 100 Russian rockets that were sent toward Ukraine in a single night.
But not everyone agrees with this assessment.
“The investigation is still very much ongoing. They are not saying with 100 per cent certainty that this is the case yet, and Ukrainian President Zelensky is adamant that it was not a Ukrainian missile that has gone rogue.”
Reymer says access to where the missile landed remains restricted amid the ongoing investigation.
“I was out at the site this evening and it’s still completely cordoned off. It’s unlike anything I’ve seen in Ukraine… where you can walk through the craters of the missiles. You can have a good look around and people almost treat them like playgrounds – they’re that common.
“But this one in Poland is so heavily guarded. There are police everywhere and they’re keeping guard because it represents something so significant for this war.”
Despite the fact that the Ukrainian defence forces have managed to reclaim much of the country, there’s still little indication of when this war could end.
There are also concerns about what Russian President Vladimir Putin could do given his back is to the wall.
- Could Putin launch a nuclear attack?
- Is Russia’s missile barrage of Ukraine a sign of desperation?
- How much strain is the Russian economy facing?
- How concerning is the energy and cost of living crisis across Europe?
- Do the Ukrainians show any signs of losing their resolve amid the continued attack?
Listen to The Front Page podcast for Reymer’s assessment of all these issues.