After spending 18 months reporting on the war in Ukraine, Kiwi photojournalist Tom Mutch has arrived in Tel Aviv. Photo / Tom Mutch
The brutal attack on an Israeli music festival on October 7 has ignited the Middle East, leading to relentless conflict across Gaza.
Thousands have already lost their lives, and there are now risks the bloodshed could stretch across borders and involve other countries.
Over the weekend, news emerged of skirmishes on the Lebanon-Israel border taking the lives of soldiers.
New Zealand-born conflict journalist Tom Mutch tells The Front Page podcast a widespread battle involving Lebanon and Israel would take things to a completely different level.
“It would really ratchet up the conflict,” says Mutch, who is currently based in Tel Aviv.
“It would really ratchet the conflict up because in Lebanon, Israel would be fighting Hezbollah – and Hezbollah is probably the most powerful non-state army in the world.
“I spoke to someone who had previously served in a very senior position in the Israel Defence Forces, and he said Hezbollah has 200,000 rockets in its arsenals hidden in tunnels throughout most of southern Lebanon. They also have thousands and thousands of well-trained fighters who fought in Syria in urban combat. If they got involved, seriously, it would be an absolute bloodbath bath in Israel and Lebanon.”
Hezbollah is a far more powerful military power than Hamas and would put up far greater resistance to the Israeli war effort.
“Hezbollah could really go toe-to-toe with Israel for far longer.”
Mutch says that people in Israel don’t want to make predictions on what will happen, but they are preparing for the worst. There would also be wider international repercussions if Hezbollah were to get involved in the conflict.
“The United States has promised to get involved if Hezbollah gets involved, and Hezbollah has promised to get involved if there is a ground invasion in Gaza.”
Further complicating the matter is the fact the Israeli military has been promising a ground invasion and could lose face with the Israeli public if they don’t follow through.
This all leaves the situation hanging in the balance, with the world watching nervously to see what happens next. Prominent international leaders have visited Israel in the last week, including US President Joe Biden.
“When Joe Biden came, he said: ‘Look, after 9/11, we made some pretty bad mess-ups.’ The message there is that you don’t want to let yourself get drawn into a huge, bloody and prolonged conflict,” says Mutch.
“After 9/11, the United States had that. One moment, the whole world was behind them and sympathised with them, but they blew that international goodwill. Israel may go through the same process.
“I was on Israeli TV the other day and I literally told them that: ‘You have the same sympathy of the world for the horrible things that happened on October 7, but don’t blow it with an extraordinarily disproportionate response.’”
So, how much longer could this war drag on? And how great is the risk of unrest spreading further?
Listen to the full episode of The Front Page for more details on the conflict across the Middle East.
The Front Page is a daily news podcast from the New Zealand Herald, available to listen to every weekday from 5am. It is presented by Damien Venuto, an Auckland-based journalist with a background in business reporting who joined the Herald in 2017.
You can follow the podcast at iHeartRadio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.
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