The Front Page: How much will China tension ‘squeeze’ New Zealand

Xi Jinping has enormous power in China. Graphic / Rod Emmerson

The ascent of Xi Jinping to the title of President for life is the biggest concentration of power in the hands of one person in China since the mid-1970s, an international relations expert says.

Stephen Noakes, a professor at the University of Auckland, tells the Front Page podcast Xi’s control was already close to absolute – and his position was only further consolidated at the recent party congress.

This Congress meeting attracted attention around the world due to the awkward nature of former leader Hun Jintao’s removal from the stage in front of live cameras. Some analysts interpreted this as a power move used by Xi to demonstrate the strength of his position at the top of the governance pyramid.

“That was a strange one, but I don’t think he was making an example of anybody,” says Noakes.

“I would be surprised if that was a power move. I interpreted that as an elderly man who is well known to have a number of quite serious health problems needing to get off-stage at an unfortunate moment but being reluctant to do so because of how it may look.”

While many media outlets jumped to conclusions about the meaning of the moment, Noakes argues that Xi could have put on a far greater display of authority if this is really what he wanted to do. The international community has become increasingly nervous about China after Russia’s attack on Ukraine. There’s now concern that Beijing could invade Taiwan in the coming months, provoking a sense of unease among many Western nations.

Noakes doesn’t anticipate Xi ordering an invasion of Taiwan anytime soon, describing some of the rhetoric as “sabre rattling”.

Commenting on China’s intentions for Hong Kong and Taiwan, Noakes says it’s important to consider the perspective of Mainland China in this complex geopolitical issue.

“From Xi’s perspective, and the perspective of all Mainland Chinese, the occurrences in Hong Kong and even Taiwan are not really a case of expanding influence in the sense which some people might be thinking … From the Chinese perspective, it’s a case of asserting control over sovereign Chinese territory. They wouldn’t see it as an overseas expansion necessarily.”

China’s growing economic strength combined with its geopolitical confidence has led to diplomatic tension with Western nations – leaving a nation like New Zealand, increasingly dependent on Chinese trade, in a vulnerable position.

“The conventional thinking in the rest of the world is that small states like New Zealand are going to be squeezed. They’re stuck between a rock and hard place and must choose sides. In my line of work, we call it bandwagoning. There’s going to pressure on places like New Zealand to bandwagon either with traditional partners, like the United States, Britain, Canada and Australia, or with a new superpower on whom New Zealand depends.”

Noakes says that none of this is going to be easy for New Zealand – which is why the country needs to tread carefully.

“I’m actually reasonably comfortable with the strategy of the current Foreign Minister (Nanaia Mahuta) that New Zealand need not have all its eggs in one basket. That’s good thinking for a state as isolated and small as New Zealand.”