The militant Hamas rulers of the Gaza Strip carried out an unprecedented, multi-front attack on Israel at daybreak on Sunday. Photo / AP
The war unfolding in Israel could become a protracted affair, according to a foreign policy expert.
Waikato University law professor Alexander Gillespie tells The Front Page podcast the escalation of violence could spill over into urban warfare, which has the potential to last far longer.
“It’s quite possible that this war could get very bad,” says Gillespie.
“If Israeli forces go into Gaza City, which is an urban environment, it could end up being very much like what happened in Lebanon in the 1980s, and it could become quite protracted. The irony is that Hamas wants Israel to attack Gaza City. They want the urban environment, because that way they can reduce some of the advantages that the Israeli military has.”
An incursion into Gaza City would further blur the lines between civilians and combatants and lead to an increase in the number of casualties.
These comments come after a difficult weekend in Israel, which saw Hamas militants attack settlements in southern Israel, killing hundreds, taking hostages and sparking harsh retaliation from the Israel Defence Forces.
“You’ve got a sequence of war crimes happening right now,” says Gillespie.
“It’s a war crime to execute anyone in a conflict, whether it’s a soldier or a civilian. It’s a war crime to make hostages of civilians. And it’s a war crime to be using indiscriminate bombardment of opposition territory. Similarly, you’re likely to see a disproportionate response [from] Israel – and because it could be in an urban built-up area, that too could become a war crime.”
This conflict could also have repercussions that extend beyond the Israeli border.
“The diplomatic world will also react,” says Gillespie.
“The process of normalisation in the Middle East has led to many countries starting to have normal relationships with Israel, but that may begin to disintegrate. The recent treaties that we’ve seen could end up being pushed to one side. There’s also the possibility that the conflict could expand… Iran is always a backer of the enemies of Israel, and that’s why the Americans have just dispatched a carrier force to the Gulf.”
The combined impact of these issues has quickly elevated the significance of our foreign policy when it comes to contending with growing global uncertainty.
Politicians have thus far prioritised local issues over international affairs, but Gillespie says it is imperative for Aotearoa to develop cross-partisan agreement on our position in the world.
“For the last 20 years, it’s been pretty easy for New Zealand not to be too concerned about large geopolitical issues… but what we’re now seeing are large challenges at the global level. When you’re talking about Ukraine, New Zealand adopted a non-neutral position. We’re not at war with Russia, but we’re giving a lot of support to Ukraine… We’re in a position which is more volatile than it’s been for decades. This means politicians have to be aware that the risk to our country is growing, and we have to be prepared to make some difficult choices in the future.”
For a detailed discussion about the conflict across Israel and Palestine, listen to the latest episode of The Front Page.
The Front Page is a daily news podcast from the New Zealand Herald, available to listen to every weekday from 5am. It is presented by Damien Venuto, an Auckland-based journalist with a background in business reporting who joined the Herald in 2017.
You can follow the podcast at iHeartRadio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.
Several Assad allies, including Maher and Mamlouk, sought refuge in Russia and Lebanon.