The case against al Qaeda

By ANDREW LAXON

A chain of connections points to the Indonesian branch of al Qaeda, Jemaah Islamiyah, as the culprit in the bombing of a Bali nightclub which killed at least 187 people.

The evidence is circumstantial, but a combination of increased activity by al Qaeda in the last week and Jemaah Islamiyah's track record in Indonesia in the past few months strongly suggests the group is responsible.

Jemaah Islamiyah is an extremist Islamic group with cells operating throughout Southeast Asia.

Its goal is to create an Islamic state made up of Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia and the southern Philippines.

It has proven links with al Qaeda.

Arrested members in Singapore, Malaysia and the Philippines have revealed links with al Qaeda, some members fought with al Qaeda in Afghanistan and US intelligence claims some September 11 hijackers met Jemaah Islamiyah members before the attack.

The group has been blamed for a string of bombings, assassinations and other violent incidents throughout Asia.

Fifteen Jemaah Islamiyah members were arrested in Singapore last December, accused of planning attacks on the American and Israeli embassies and British and Australian diplomatic buildings.

Singapore authorities say the men videotaped their American targets in preparation for the attack and acquired four tonnes of ammonium nitrate to make the explosive.

Among those detained in Malaysia is Yazid Sufaat, who allegedly allowed two of the September 11 hijackers to meet al Qaeda operatives at his apartment in 2000.

Yazid is accused of obtaining the ammonium nitrate, the agricultural chemical used by Timothy McVeigh to make his 1995 Oklahoma City truck bomb.

Malaysia was able to trace it as far as the Indonesian island of Batam in January, but it has never been found.

Singapore's Government says the detained men say their leader is Abu Bakar Bashir, an Islamic cleric based in central Java.

The first specific indications that the group might be planning a high-profile attack came last month as the world prepared for the anniversary of last year's September 11 attack on the United States.

The American ambassador in Indonesia, Ralph Boyce, closed the embassy for five days, claiming he had information that his staff were in danger of a terrorist attack but refusing to give any details.

A few days later Time magazine reported that a 31-year-old Kuwaiti living in Indonesia, Omar Al Faruq - who the magazine said confessed under CIA interrogation to being al Qaeda's top representative in Southeast Asia - had been masterminding a car bomb attack on the Jakarta embassy when he was arrested in June.

The magazine said Al Faruq had revealed that Osama bin Laden's deputy, Ayman al-Zawahiri - regarded as the operational brain behind al Qaeda - visited the leaders of Jemaah Islamiyah two years ago to exchange ideas.

Time also said Al Faruq said Bashir had bombed Jakarta's biggest mosque in 1999 and tried to spark retaliation by blaming Christian fundamentalists.

Bashir sued Time magazine and the CIA, and accused the US of running a smear campaign against him and Islam.

A few weeks later, a home-made bomb exploded on the floor of a moving car 20 metres from a Jakarta house owned and occupied by the US embassy.

The national police chief initially claimed it was an attack on the US.

But police then decided the four bombers were trying to scare a person living two doors away into paying an outstanding debt.

Police arrested the driver and several others, but no credible evidence has been provided about why they had explosives, pistols and ammunition in their homes or, as the Sydney Morning Herald put it, "why this was Jakarta's first known use of a bomb in a debt-collecting exercise".

The newspaper said that while the US continued its public line that there was no evidence the attack was directed against the US, Boyce met three ministers last week to complain about a lack of safety for his staff.

The build-up in Indonesia occurred as governments and intelligence agencies in the US and elsewhere became increasingly convinced that al Qaeda was back in business and preparing another large-scale attack.

American investigators believe an explosion which crippled a French oil tanker off Yemen last week was the work of terrorists, especially since it closely resembles the al Qaeda-linked attack on the destroyer USS Cole which killed 17 sailors two years ago.

A few days after the Yemen blast, one US marine was killed and another wounded as they played baseball while off duty in Kuwait.

Kuwaiti investigators say the attackers, who were gunned down, were linked to al Qaeda.

In the same week, al Qaeda released two statements, warning of fresh attacks and claiming credit for old ones.

Ayman al-Zawahiri boasted of the network's success in bombing a synagogue in Tunisia and the attack on French naval engineers outside a Karachi hotel, which forced the New Zealand cricket team to return home.

He threatened new attacks against America and the "lifelines of its economy".

Within days the video tapes - broadcast on the Al Jazeera television station in Qatar - prompted warnings from the American State Department and FBI of a new attack.

The FBI said: "The content of the statements and the context surrounding these threats reinforces our view that they may signal an attack."

The State Department said that "because security and security awareness have been elevated within the United State, the terrorists may target US interests overseas".

The warning gave no indication where an attack might happen, but predicted that terrorists would be looking for "soft targets", not just official ones.

"These may include facilities where Americans are known to congregate or visit, such as clubs, restaurants, places of worship, schools or outdoor recreation events.

"American citizens may be targeted for kidnapping or assassination."

Back in Indonesia, Bashir was making a ringing anti-US speech in Jakarta, urging Indonesians to make a choice between Islam and the US.

"I defend Islam," he said. "Now it is up to the Indonesian Government, police and people to also defend Islam, or to choose to defend America."

Yesterday Bashir called a press conference to deny any role in the bombings.

"The explosion could not have been carried out by domestic people," he said. "Considering the huge power of the explosives used, it must be the work of foreigners, most probably the United States."

He added that the attack was to create the impression that Islamic terrorists were present in Indonesia.

"I hope the Government will not fall into the US trap."

Ralph Boyce said yesterday that it was not possible yet to pin the Bali attack on al Qaeda, but recent evidence had confirmed that al Qaeda was in Indonesia and reaching out to local extremists.

The United States and Indonesia's neighbours have urged Jakarta for months to pass an anti-terrorism law that has been languishing in the Parliament to counter a strong al Qaeda presence here.

Without the law, Indonesia says, security forces cannot arrest suspects without clear evidence they have committed a crime.

"This horrible incident has only made it that much more urgent that they find some way to deal with this problem," Boyce said.

In the US, a senior Republican politician briefed by the CIA and FBI said the bombings were "a definite terrorist link".

Senator Richard Shelby of Alabama, the top-ranking Republican on the Senate select committee for intelligence, said: "I believe this is the beginning of a lot more we're going to see, perhaps in the US."

He cited last week's events - the Yemen oil tanker explosion, the killing of the US Marine in Kuwait and the taped messages - as evidence of al Qaeda's resurgence.

An expert on al Qaeda, Rohan Gunaratna, said the group's Southeast Asian network, Jemaah Islamiyah, was responsible for the terrorist attack on Bali.

Gunaratna, research fellow at the Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence at the University of St Andrews in Scotland and author of the book Inside al Qaeda, said it was highly likely that the group had targeted Australians and other Westerners.

Gunaratna has also said Australia is on the terror group's international target list.

Yesterday, he said the Bali attack showed al Qaeda and Jemaah Islamiyah were active across the region.

"The organisation called Jemaah Islamiyah invests significant resources and assets before it conducts a terrorist operation, to figure out who its victims will be," he told Australia's ABC television.

"It's very clear that this attack was aimed at Australians and Westerners."

Gunaratna said the Australian Government had to work with other countries across Southeast Asia to combat al Qaeda and Jemaah Islamiyah.

If the terror organisations were not disrupted, Australians would face terrorist activity in their own country.

"The Australian Government must work very closely with Southeast Asian governments to disrupt, degrade and destroy al Qaeda and associated groups of al Qaeda active in Southeast Asia."

Bali messages

New Zealand travellers in Bali, and their families in New Zealand, can post messages on our Bali Messages page.

Foreign Affairs advice to New Zealanders

* Travellers should defer travel to Bali

* NZers in Bali should keep a low profile and remain calm

* Foreign Affairs Hotline: 0800 432 111

Feature: Bali bomb blast

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