Thaw on tax a bright spot for PM

The Malaysian deal may give Julia Gillard some breathing space. Photo / Greg Bowker

The horizon has brightened slightly for Prime Minister Julia Gillard, with approval for her proposed carbon tax edging up and the Government yesterday signing a refugee-swap deal with Malaysia.

Neither development is anything so far but a fragile bottom bounce for Gillard and Labor, who have reached record popularity lows after the formation last year of her minority Government.

With the yet-to-be finalised mining tax, asylum seekers and a carbon tax have been the big three on Gillard's agenda, all of them adding to the pounding she has consistently taken in the polls.

Gillard's solution has been to crash through with unpopular policies early in her term in the hope that once out of the way the political heat will abate and allow the Government to recover before the next election in 2013.

The deal with Malaysia, signed yesterday in Kuala Lumpur by Immigration Minister Chris Bowen and Malaysian Home Affairs Minister Hishammuddin Hussein, is a last-gasp answer to the resumption of the flow of boats from Malaysia since Labor won power in 2007.

The collapse of Gillard's hopes for a new regional facility in East Timor further lowered voters' confidence, and the Malaysian solution has been far from popular - but may allow the Government essential breathing space.

Under the deal Australia will over four years take 4000 refugees whose status has been recognised by the United Nations, in return for Malaysia's acceptance of 800 unprocessed asylum seekers from the more than 6000 at present in detention.

But protests and violence has continued among detainees, and the Opposition has claimed that the interception at the weekend of yet another boat carrying 47 asylum seekers showed the Malaysian deal would not be a deterrent.

Bowen had earlier told ABC TV that although boats would continue to arrive there had been a "very significant" reduction in the number of boats this year, especially since the Malaysia deal was announced.

But Opposition Leader Tony Abbott said that since the deal was announced 10 more boats with more than 500 asylum seekers had arrived.

"So it hasn't worked so far [and] I'm far from sure it will ever work," he said.

Meanwhile, a new poll in the Australian said yesterday that support for the proposed carbon tax had risen slightly since the details were announced two weeks ago, with the number in favour increasing six points to 36 per cent.

The Australian said this was the first time Gillard's fortunes had improved since the announcement and, although voters still overwhelmingly rejected the move, the poll had offered some hope. But even with the slight shift toward the Government, dissatisfaction with Gillard's performance remains at a record high and Abbott still holds a marginal lead as preferred Prime Minister.

Labor's primary vote rose from its lowest-ever support of 27 per cent to 29 per cent and the Coalition's fell from 49 to 47 per cent, but on a two-party basis the Opposition holds a crushing 12-point lead.