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BANGKOK - Ousted Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra said overnight he was confident the party he backed in weekend elections could form a coalition government, unless prevented unfairly, allowing him to return from exile.
"If nobody interferes in the normal democratic process of forming a coalition government, everything will be completed accordingly," Thaksin told Reuters by telephone from Hong Kong in a clear reference to the military that ousted him in 2006.
"That will be the first step toward national reconciliation," he said.
He insisted he would not return to politics after the general election proved Thailand was still polarised between his urban and military enemies and his rural faithful.
The latest tally from the Election Commission (EC) showed the People Power Party, the reincarnation of Thaksin's Thai Rak Thai (Thais Love Thais) party dissolved after the bloodless coup for poll fraud, originally won 233 of the 480 parliamentary seats.
But shortly after the military said it would do nothing to prevent the PPP trying to put a coalition together, the EC disqualified three PPP winners in a northeastern constituency for electoral fraud, calling a by-election on Jan 13.
"We have nothing to worry about and will accept it," Armed Forces Supreme Commander General Boonsrang Niumpradit said earlier on Tuesday, despite a widespread belief the military would do all it could to prevent PPP forming a coalition after a vote that effectively condemned the coup.
"We just have to let politicians do their job. The CNS won't get involved," he told reporters, referring to the Council for National Security as the coup leaders call themselves.
However, political analysts point to many ways the generals can affect progress, such as putting pressure on minor parties not to join the PPP. Persuading the Election Commission they appointed to disqualify PPP winners might be another tactic, analysts say.
"Indeed, it would be surprising if the generals and their allies accept the PPP-led government without a fight," analyst Thitinan Pongsudhirak wrote in the Bangkok Post newspaper.
"A PPP-led coalition would be a frontal assault on the establishment, pitting the forces and interests of the majority of the electorate against those of a significant minority that includes Bangkok."
THAKSIN TO FIGHT CHARGES
Thaksin said he planned to return to Thailand between February and April to clear his name of corruption charges brought by military-appointed investigators.
"That is the period when we expect a new government to have been formed and the country has returned to democracy," he said.
"I will not take any political position," he said. "I am quitting politics."
But Thaksin told a Hong Kong news conference he would be happy to advise the PPP, a statement likely to convince many people he planned to pull the strings of the government.
"I will give my ideas free of charge," he said.
A clear picture of who will form a government is unlikely to emerge until the new year with most parties unwilling to show their hands until the Election Commission finalises the results, expected by January 3.
The PPP won almost 50 per cent of the popular vote, mostly in the rural heartlands where Thaksin is regarded as the first Thai leader to pay serious attention to poor country folk through cheap health care and pumping money into the villages.
Bangkok went solidly for the Democrat Party, the main opposition during Thaksin's five years in power, which won 165 seats and is favoured by the military and royalist establishment.
Despite the prospect of the political turmoil of the past two years continuing, the Thai stock market rose three per cent, albeit in very thin trade, when it reopened on Tuesday after an election holiday.
Investors believed the election would improve political stability and economic growth, likely to fall from 5.1 per cent in 2006 towards 4 per cent this year, the lowest in six years.
But there were still fears the polarisation of the country, which has had 18 coups in 75 years of on-off democracy, could result in more bloodshed and another military intervention.
"If such divisions result in another unconstitutional replacement of the government, or social unrest, the political and economic consequences will be much more negative than experienced so far," ratings agency Standard & Poor's said.
- REUTERS
