Testing times for Turkey's President Erdogan

Supporters of Recep Tayyip Erdogan have been celebrating after he held on to power in Sunday's elections. Photo / AP

After 15 years of dominance, Turkey's high-handed and authoritarian President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has won elections marred by allegations of rigging and government dominance of the media.

Erdogan used to be the poster-boy for Western hopes that Islam, democracy and prosperity could mix happily. But 15 long years in power fed Erdogan's authoritarianism and pasha-like caprice.

Millions of Turks, who had backed him for stabilising the economy and liberalising official attitudes to the country's minorities like the Kurds, felt deceived as the economy tanked and Erdogan used emergency rule to crack down on political rivals as well as the coup plotters of 2016.

Although Erdogan argued that Turkey needed a strong presidency to secure the country, the stronger he has become, the more disruption has hit the economy and his country's relations with its allies in Nato.

Many Turks' desire for economic stability and less trouble on their borders with Syria and Iraq explains the surge in support for the opposition.

If he has lost his majority in Parliament, he will be using its new, enhanced powers from a weaker popular base. Parliamentarians could be emboldened to defy Erdogan, especially if the economy continues to dip.

Like a generous sultan, Erdogan gave a sop to parliamentarians when he devised the new constitution by giving them the right to impeach the executive president, despite his vast powers over government, the courts and so on. He assumed his party would dominate Parliament, but not any more.

With allegations of corruption swirling around key family members, and charges of abuse of power against him, an Erdogan victory could be reversed by the very constitution that he intended to cement his hold on power for the next decade.

Westerners will probably rejoice at Erdogan's hollow victory, but his opponents are not happy that the European Union and United States supported for him for so long.

Ironically, as Erdogan has veered away from his Nato partners, to embrace Russia and Iran, his domestic rivals have also been calling for an end to Nato's anti-Assad line. Of course, Turkey houses huge numbers of refugees from Syria. Erdogan's failure to resolve the Syrian issue was one of his rivals' most popular charges against him.

Sadly, although Turks are bitterly divided at home, they have voted for politicians united only by being disillusioned with the country's traditional Western partners.

Poll position

• According to unofficial results, Erdogan garnered 52.5 per cent of the presidential vote, while his ruling Justice and Development Party, or AKP, won 42.5 per cent of the parliamentary vote

• Erdogan's closest contender, Muharrem Ince of the secular opposition Republican People's Party, won 30.7 per cent support

• Erdogan's AKP fell short of winning a parliamentary majority but a better-than-expected performance by its nationalist ally should allow the party to control the 600-seat legislature

• Mark Almond is director of the Crisis Research Institute, Oxford.