Taiwanese President under siege as foes marshal forces

GRAHAM REID* takes a close look at the minefield of politics facing Taiwan's President after his first year in office.

A rape accusation, corruption and money scandals, a pugnacious neighbour prone to fist shaking, rising unemployment, the possibility of armed conflict in the region ...

If a week in politics is a very long time then one week in Taiwan is like a year anywhere else.

Consider the week leading up to the first anniversary of the inauguration of President Chen Shui-bian of the Democratic Progressive Party last Sunday.

Editorials poked at the Government's part in the declining economy, its inability to get cross-strait relations moving, the rising unemployment (now 3.89 per cent, the highest in 15 years) and noted that the DPP was in the habit of blaming others, notably the former ruling party the Kuomintang (KMT), for Taiwan's problems.

"The Government cannot keep asking the people to be patient until it has mastered the rules of the game," retorted KMT chairman Lien Chan, after Chen had addressed a group of Taiwanese businessmen from North America and pointed the finger again at the KMT, which still controls the legislature and has been able to stymie policy bills the DPP introduces.

A survey showed an approval rating for all the top DPP leaders - Chen, Vice-President Annette Wu and Premier Chang Chun-hsiung - at less than 50 per cent, and approval for the cabinet at a paltry 35 per cent. After his inauguration Chen's popularity was at a whopping 82 per cent.

Also in the week before his first year was up, an economist at JP Morgan Chase predicted Taiwan's economy would grow only around 3.5 per cent in the coming year, in contrast to the Government's estimate of 5.25. Investors are leaving the market and there is a flight of capital and talent to mainland China.

Chen is faced with noisy factionalism within his own party, the most vocal being Wu, who suggested "a bold new experiment" of proportional Government after the December 1 elections in which the President would draw together a cross-party cabinet. Her suggestion met a deafening silence.

While all this was going on, former President Vincent Siew of the KMT was being warmly welcomed in Beijing - which has been galling for the DPP. And out there on the sidelines, 73-year-old presidential adviser and business tycoon Chen Chao-chuan reiterated his denial that he raped a woman on May 5, there was some disquiet about the new conservative Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumui and the lack of direction in the American Administration when dealing with Asia, and a 40-hour fire in the Eastern Sciences Park outside Taipei cost billions as around 200 IT firms were badly affected.

And armed Chinese sailors boarded and held for nine hours a Taiwanese fishing boat it suspected of illegally supplying diesel to Chinese fishermen.

Of course there was some good news for Chen and the DPP: there were predictions the party would pick up as many as 85 seats in the end-of-year legislature elections and it discreetly opened negotiations to create a coalition which could make it a workable and stable government. The KMT was in disarray as corrupt practices after generations in power were exposed, and the DPP's Chairman of the Council for Economic Planning and Development, Chen Po-chih, the highest ranking official to visit the mainland in the past year, met Chinese President Jiang Zemin.

It was also announced Premier Chen and Economics Minister Lin Hsin-i would not be indicted over the DPP's cancellation of a nuclear power plant contract, although the investigators cited the need for political stability in their decision not to push for their removal.

And despite the factionalism and economic slowdown many observers are quick to note that Taiwan has remained remarkably stable and its people patient. "This is why Taiwan has not suffered political chaos seen in Indonesia and the Philippines," Chen noted.

But the day after commemorating his inauguration Chen was on a plane to visit allies in South America and, controversially, a stop in New York during which - to China's enormous irritation - he will meet with pro-Taiwan US senators. It is an historic first for Taiwan and although it is characterised as an unofficial visit, it has given comfort to Chen that the Bush Administration is serious in its support of a democratic Taiwan, distinct from China.

After the week he had had, typical in the rollercoaster of Taiwan's political realm, Chen was probably glad to see the polluted skies of Taipei behind him as he headed off to the Americas.

The Chen Administration came to power last May with the DPP taking 39 per cent of the vote, the KMT a mere 23 per cent after more than 50 years in power, and former KMT stalwart James Soong's new People First Party splitting the opposition and taking 37 per cent.

The election ended the dominance of the KMT and saw the first democratic transition of power from one party to another in 5000 years of Chinese history.

It also sent tremors through the mainland which objected to Chen's pro-independence line.

Chinese Prime Minister Zhu Rongji said the Chinese people were prepared to shed blood to get Taiwan back under the banner of China.

Chen has modified his pro-independence line and made conciliatory gestures - which China appears to have ignored.

Riding in on a buoyant economy and vowing to root out corruption - the "black gold" or gangster-big business money associated with the KMT - Chen and his party enjoyed a mandate of optimism if not a convincing slice of the popular vote.

That lack of clout in the legislature ran them into immediate trouble. The DPP's proposal for a 44-hour working week, which had been agreed to by business leaders and unions, was blocked by the KMT dominated legislature which was angry it hadn't been consulted. It proposed an 84-hour fortnight.

Then the economy began to wind down in response to soft international markets, and Tang Fei resigned as Premier to be replaced by Chang, who announced the scrapping of the fourth nuclear power plant. It came immediately after Chen and KMT chairman Lien Chan had met cordially, which suggested better relations. Suddenly all bets were off.

The power plant issue rocked business confidence at home and abroad, although observers would say Taiwan was going to experience problems regardless because of non-performing loans in the overcrowded banking sector.

However many policy initiatives were blocked in the legislature. By its own admission the party has found it difficult to adapt to its new role with unblooded members . There have been repeated threats of no-confidence motions against the cabinet, and firebrands like Wu - who was imprisoned for a year under the KMT - were still advancing the independence line, sometimes to the irritation of her own party.

Then the Bush Administration arrived in Washington DC with Cold War rhetoric which made everyone in the region jumpy.

The spy plane incident, President Bush's confirmation of arms sales to Taiwan and his statement that his country would do whatever it took to defend Taiwan from Chinese aggression made for some sleepless nights and sweaty armpits in Taiwan's capital, Taipei.

Politics in Taiwan is an endless round of claim and counter-claim, real and perceived threats, and shifting allegiances. Every day for the DPP, KMT and Taiwan in general there is good news and bad news. And the man at the centre is Chen.

The son of a poor farming family and a gifted, high-powered lawyer who came to politics after defending one of nine men arrested in anti-KMT protests in 1980, Chen was imprisoned for eight months in 1986 for publishing an article critical of a well-known author.

The previous year his wife was paralysed from the waist down when she was run down, the day after Chen had received an anonymous death threat.

His time as mayor of Taipei from 94 - the first non-KMT mayor in the city's history - was characterised by crackdowns on corruption and prostitution.

Some say he made an excellent mayor, but that prowess hasn't translated into national politics.

He appears well liked outside KMT circles, although there is growing frustration with his calls for patience and his Government's political impotence. In words which sounded uncannily like those of Chauncy Gardner in the Peter Sellers movie Being There, he said, "We must plant a new seedling and nurture its growth."

He has previously likened his Administration to an airplane taking off, "a plane ride is unavoidably bumpy at first" - and there is not enough substance behind the words.His promised "People's Government" seems a thing of the past. "On many scores he has been a victim of circumstances and antagonistic forces," wrote Hugo Renstall in the Wall Street Journal, reflecting on Chen's year, "but that's no excuse for the fact that Government is adrift, incapable of countering those forces." The political scene was a mess, he said.

Certainly, the week before the anniversary of Chen's first year in office was.

Like a year in any other place.

* Graham Reid travelled to Taiwan with assistance from an Asia 2000 scholarship.