Taiwan could fend off China attack for two weeks

TAIPEI - Taiwan could withstand an attack from China for two weeks, military sources told the China Times, in comments seen aimed at assuaging fears raised by a computer simulation showing that Taipei could be captured in six days.

Tensions have been running high in the Taiwan Strait as China prepares for a possible military showdown, convinced Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian will push for formal statehood during his second term.

Both sides are holding their annual war games, with China -- which views the island as a renegade province -- staging mock-invasion drills and Taiwan pretending to fend off an attack.

A computer-simulated exercise showed China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) could take the island's capital in just six days, Taiwan media reported on Wednesday.

However, the mass-circulation China Times quoted "authoritative military sources" as saying the computer had made certain assumptions -- such as no help from the United States -- and it did not mean Taiwan would be defeated so quickly.

"The sources indicate, in the event of a 'first strike', the air force and navy can preserve of their fighting capabilities while the army can maintain 80 per cent of its fighting capabilities," the newspaper said.

"Under these circumstances, Taiwan can hold on for two weeks in the event of a war in the Taiwan Strait."

Military experts say China is accelerating its arms build-up in preparation for war, but the PLA still lacks sophisticated amphibious vessels to turn its 2.5-million-strong army into a credible invasion force.

Furthermore, the expectation is that Washington would meet its treaty obligation and come to Taiwan's rescue, either through diplomatic pressure on China, intelligence aid or actual combat assistance, analysts say.

However, the United States -- Taiwan's main arms supplier -- had told the island's military it should be prepared to "fight independently" for a month, the sources told the newspaper.

Without directly commenting on the capture of Taipei, the Defence Ministry has said the computer simulation showed Chinese forces would suffer huge casualties if the two sides went to war.

The China Times said the computer simulation was programmed to end in six days, so it ramped up China's abilities, such as assuming that a Chinese frigate at a northern naval base could reach Taiwan within an hour when it should be 30 hours.

- REUTERS