Taiwan backs Chen, but low turnout mars election

TAIPEI - A surprise election victory for Taiwan's ruling party, marred by a record-low voter turnout, is only a limited endorsement of President Chen Shui-bian's policy of standing up to China, analysts and newspapers said today.

Chen's Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) affirmed its position as Taiwan's largest political party after Saturday's vote with 42.52 per cent of votes in an election for the National Assembly, an ad hoc body formed to decide on constitutional reforms.

The victory came despite opinion polls that suggested the DPP had lost support after Chinese President Hu Jintao met with Taiwan opposition leaders and offered economic concessions to the island.

"We have every reason to be joyful, particularly amongst our party leadership, because the victory really saved us from an immediate crisis," said Shen Fu-hsiung, one of the newly elected National Assembly members from the DPP.

However, a slump in turnout to just 23.36 per cent, attributed to bad weather and voter confusion over what the election was about, cast a shadow over interpreting the poll.

"If this election result is taken as a barometer of support for political parties, then the DPP has held on to its position as number one even though the low turnout rate puts judgment in doubt," the China Times said in its editorial.

China considers democratic Taiwan a breakaway province that must eventually be reunified, by force if necessary.

Chen and the DPP say Taiwan people must be allowed to choose their own future and independence is one of the options. Beijing refuses to deal with them unless they first accept the island of 23 million people is part of Chinese territory.

Analysts say pressure on Chen to reconcile with China will now ease as the high-profile visits to the mainland by the Nationalist Party (Kuomintang) and People First Party did not help them in the election. The KMT won 38.92 per cent of the vote, and the PFP only 6.11 per cent.

The low turnout means the poll cannot be used to predict future elections, but may have "a lasting impact on the confidence and attitude towards negotiation by the parties", said Michael Hsiao, a political expert at the Academia Sinica.

There was no immediate comment from China and most official papers did not report on the poll.

The election results mean the planned constitutional amendments are virtually certain to go ahead. The DPP and the KMT both support the changes to halve the size of the legislature and revamp the electoral system towards a "winner-takes-all" scheme, expected to favour large parties.

The two major parties combined took 81 per cent of the National Assembly's 300 seats.

The amendments may also pave the way for Chen's plan to rewrite Taiwan's constitution - a move sure to anger China, which sees it as a hair's breadth away from declaring statehood.

Newspapers reported DPP Chairman Su Tseng-chang as saying Chen had told him successful constitutional reform would be the first step of a two-stage plan to give the people of Taiwan "a tailor-made constitution that fits the times" in 2008.

However, analysts said the amendments, which have to be approved in one package, also impose an almost impossibly high threshold on referendums on future constitutional change. They require approval from 50 per cent of eligible voters.

A survey by the United Daily News found most voters were unsure of the issues at stake and simply voted along party lines.

- REUTERS